Articles from
Dallas Fed Economics providing critical insights on trade, immigration, and other major international issues, along with in-depth analysis of monetary policy challenges affecting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic ties with Mexico.
Mexico’s economy surprises to the upside, but outlook is weak
The Mexican economy grew during the first half of 2025, surprising analysts who had anticipated a recession. However, the outlook is weak, with the consensus forecast implying economic slowdown during the second half.
October 16, 2025
Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Central bank swaps offer dollar crisis lifeline to non-U.S. banks
Starting in late 2007, the Federal Reserve, in partnership with a few major foreign central banks, began offering central bank dollar liquidity swap lines as an important liquidity backstop.
September 30, 2025
Are trade deficits good or bad, and can tariffs reduce them?
Typically, trade deficits are viewed through a lens of exports and imports, with the latter exceeding the former. While that is a useful exercise, it’s also helpful to examine deficits through a macroeconomic lens.
September 04, 2025
Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
Survey-based forecast data on home price growth are a surer indicator of housing market exuberance than traditional valuation ratios, such as price-to-income or price-to-rent.
September 02, 2025
Middle East geopolitical risk modestly affects inflation and inflation expectations
In Depth: While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently.
August 21, 2025
Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.
July 17, 2025
Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
July 08, 2025
Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
June 24, 2025
Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
June 03, 2025