Articles from
Dallas Fed Economics providing critical insights on trade, immigration, and other major international issues, along with in-depth analysis of monetary policy challenges affecting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic ties with Mexico.
Dallas Fed Economics
International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
July 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
June 02, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
May 21, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own
A home is not only a place to live. It is a long-lived asset whose value reflects the housing service it provides over time and the return buyers require, given interest rates and risk. The ongoing combination of high house price-to-rent ratios and strained affordability suggests housing remains a macroeconomic vulnerability, though financial conditions appear more resilient than before the housing bust and subsequent Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
May 19, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
May 12, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
May 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
March 20, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming
House prices matter to more than just individual homebuyers and sellers. They are closely tied to consumer spending, business investment and the broader path of the economy.
January 15, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar’s status
During a presentation and discussion hosted by the Global Institute last month, Steve Kamin discussed how tariffs, volatility and evolving payment technologies are challenging—but not yet dislodging—the dollar’s position as a reserve currency at the center of the global financial system.
December 31, 2025