June 25, 2024
Jesus Cañas and Emily Kerr
Learning how businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) helps policymakers understand changing economic conditions, particularly involving employment and productivity.
June 20, 2024
Mariam Yousuf, Isabel Dhillon and Diego Morales-Burnett
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in May, driven by the service sector. Texas employment growth picked up, and the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.0 percent in April from 3.9 percent in March.
June 18, 2024
Braden Strackman and Mark A. Wynne
Many individual price changes make up widely used gauges of inflation. Their relative importance changes over time and may affect how consumers perceive inflation. Such perceptions can prompt households to update their inflation expectations, decreasing optimism about real economic activity.
May 28, 2024
Chi-Young Choi, Alexander Chudik and Aaron Smallwood
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
May 21, 2024
Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
May 14, 2024
Lutz Kilian and David Rapson
The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.
May 7, 2024
Robert Leigh, Ana Pranger, Yichen Su and Mariam Yousuf
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.
April 2, 2024
Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
March 28, 2024
Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett
A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.
March 26, 2024
Enrique Martínez García and Braden Strackman
The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.