October 10, 2023
J. Scott Davis and Kunal Patel
Russia’s currency is losing value, falling 40 percent against the U.S. dollar since December 2022. With measures targeting Russian exports likely to persist, the country’s balance of payments will remain under pressure, leading to continuing currency weakness.
October 3, 2023
Garrett Golding
A series of emergency drawdowns, exchanges and planned sales since 2020 have reduced crude oil inventories held by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Calls to fully refill the SPR in recent months raise important questions.
September 28, 2023
Diego Morales-Burnett, Pia Orrenius and Ana Pranger
Texas employment growth slowed even as overall activity strengthened in August and September. Resistance to price increases rose.
September 26, 2023
Pon Sagnanert, Jesus Cañas and Luis Torres
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
September 5, 2023
Laila Assanie, Amy Chapel, Lorenzo Garza, Emily Greenwald and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Despite persistent remote work arrangements and high vacancies in existing office buildings, construction cranes erecting new office space continue to dot Texas skylines.
August 29, 2023
Ana Pranger, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
August 22, 2023
Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli, Jenny Tang and Japji Singh
Unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy moves can profoundly affect market participants, investors and the economy. The impact of policy stems not only from its direct effects—the traditional focus for economists—but also from the new information revealed about the Fed’s economic outlook.
August 15, 2023
Alexander Chudik and Anil Kumar
The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.
August 8, 2023
J. Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.
August 3, 2023
Aparna Jayashankar and Yichen Su
Texas job growth slowed in June, though it still exceeded the U.S. rate. Meanwhile, the state economy continued to expand despite the downshift in employment and weakness in manufacturing.