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Trade

 

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Opening remarks for panel titled ‘The increasing role of nonbank institutions in the Treasury and money markets’

    As moderator of a panel discussion, Dallas Fed President Logan gathered industry experts’ views on the role of nonbank institutions in Treasury and money markets and how to enhance these markets’ resilience.

  • Texas’ economic outlook deteriorates as tariff-related uncertainty builds

    While lagging indicators reflect resilient growth for the Texas economy, more recent survey data suggest diminished momentum amid elevated uncertainty about the outlook.

  • U.S. tariff outcomes dependent on trading partner responses

    In Depth: U.S. tariff policy has historically shifted among competing goals: providing revenue, protecting domestic markets and opening foreign markets to domestic producers. These goals are unlikely to be achieved simultaneously.

  • Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration

    Tariffs, immigration and nearshoring are the current defining topics for the U.S.–Mexico relationship. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted this conference on the economic outlook for North America through the lens of these issues.

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Welcome remarks for the Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration conference

    This conversation comes at a pivotal time as governments adjust trade, immigration and other policies.

  • Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases

    The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

  • Weighing Texas economic resilience amid tariffs, workforce challenges

    Ray Perryman, principal of Waco-based The Perryman Group, has been an observer of the Texas economy for more than four decades. He offers his views of what has propelled Texas since the 1980s oil bust and the state’s future prospects, and he recounts how he grew his economics firm.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics

    This paper exploits bilateral trade flows of final and intermediate goods together with the structure of static trade models that deliver gravity equations to identify exogenous changes in trade costs between countries. The authors then use a local projections approach to assess the effects of trade cost shocks on consumer price (CPI) inflation.

  • Mexico, U.S. and China offer an evolving ‘triangular’ trade relationship

    Enrique Dussel Peters, a professor at the Graduate School of Economics at the Universidad Nacional Autonóma de México and coordinator of the university’s Center for Chinese–Mexican Studies, discusses trade flows between the U.S., Mexico and China and their prospects.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

    Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, this paper develops novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. The paper documents three new GVC patterns.