Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Working Papers
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Exchange Rate Determination Under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also led to imperfect CIP arbitrage. This paper shows that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets.
September 23, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
September 03, 2024
Mexico’s economy softens in the second quarter
Mexico’s economic activity slowed in the second quarter of 2024, missing market expectations. GDP slowed to an annualized 0.8 percent growth from 1.1 percent the previous quarter due to a loss of momentum in services and an extended contraction in the agricultural sector.
August 14, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 13, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Trade liberalization reduces entrepreneurship rate
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
August 06, 2024
Working Papers
Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
August 05, 2024
Working Papers
Unequal Climate Policy in an Unequal World
This paper characterizes optimal climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences. The authors focus on constrained efficiency, where the planner is restricted from transferring resources across households.
July 16, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 09, 2024
Mexico’s economy continues growing through second quarter
Mexico’s economy continued growing steadily through the second quarter, according to the monthly GDP proxy. However, high inflation and the recent increase in political uncertainty remain headwinds for the Mexican economy.
July 03, 2024