Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Dallas Fed Economics
More household savings offset increased government borrowing since 2008
Large government budget deficits over the past 15 years have led to a large increase in the stock of government debt. But these government deficits have been matched by an increase in U.S. household savings.
November 26, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
November 12, 2024
Working Paper
What Imports to Import Prices?
This study offers new insights into exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using U.S. import price indexes by country-of-origin, covering two decades of monthly data.
October 25, 2024
Mexico’s economy shows mixed signals
Mexico’s economy continued growing steadily through August, according to the monthly GDP proxy. However, a weakening labor market and stalled consumption are signs of deceleration going into the fourth quarter.
October 25, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 22, 2024
Working Paper
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
To determine the impact of the postpandemic U.S. immigration surge, the authors first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. They then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity.
October 01, 2024
Working Paper
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Exchange Rate Determination Under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also led to imperfect CIP arbitrage. This paper shows that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets.
September 23, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
September 03, 2024
Mexico’s economy softens in the second quarter
Mexico’s economic activity slowed in the second quarter of 2024, missing market expectations. GDP slowed to an annualized 0.8 percent growth from 1.1 percent the previous quarter due to a loss of momentum in services and an extended contraction in the agricultural sector.
August 14, 2024