Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Global Institute presentation: Steve Kamin on the dollar’s status
During a presentation and discussion hosted by the Global Institute last month, Steve Kamin discussed how tariffs, volatility and evolving payment technologies are challenging—but not yet dislodging—the dollar’s position as a reserve currency at the center of the global financial system.
December 31, 2025
China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
Nearly 30 percent of China's industrial firms operate at a loss, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. The question arises: How can this be sustained?
December 30, 2025
China debt overhang leads to rising share of ‘zombie’ firms
China’s private sector debt ballooned from 2008 through 2016, among the largest and most sustained such increases historically. Notably, this Chinese credit growth was financed entirely from domestic savings, unlike many other examples of rapid credit expansion elsewhere.
December 23, 2025
Mexico Economic Update
Mexico’s economy contracts in third quarter, outlook weakens further
Mexico’s GDP contracted in the third quarter , reflecting a 5.9 percent (annualized) decline in manufacturing output and a pullback in investment amid uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.
December 19, 2025
Expiring solar tax credits shine a light on benefit inequities
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a broad package of federal spending and tax policies signed into law in July 2025, spells trouble for the residential solar industry.
November 20, 2025
Transfer payments, household savings play key roles in growing U.S. deficit
While recent levels of government borrowing have been high, private savings by U.S. residents have been elevated as well. As a result, overall borrowing for the entire U.S economy has been remarkably stable.
November 18, 2025
Bridges and borders: Economic policy across North America
This conference organized by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas examined key policy and economic challenges shaping the future of North American integration, with a focus on labor mobility, remittance flows and cross-border trade.
November 06, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Optimal Foreign Reserve Intervention and Financial Development
This paper documents evidence of a U-shaped relationship between financial development and the adjustments of foreign exchange reserve holdings in response to a U.S. interest rate increase.
November 03, 2025
Higher tariffs in U.S., Mexico part of global response to China export surge
Concerns regarding diversion or transshipment of Chinese exports have figured prominently in U.S. trade talks in 2025. Mexico and Canada have already raised tariffs on Chinese goods in some sectors to protect their domestic industries.
October 31, 2025
Overflowing U.S. shale gas increasingly streams to Mexico and onto global markets
Huge volumes of imported shale gas from the United States have provided the ample supply for Mexico’s growing energy needs, keeping power prices down for industries and households.
October 31, 2025