Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Special Report
USMCA trade outlook matters for the U.S., not just for Canada and Mexico
While the overall impact on the U.S. of a redrawn regional trade agreement with Mexico and Canada appears modest in most plausible scenarios, policies promoting regionalization differ sharply in their impacts.
August 26, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mitigating tariffs via USMCA may have limited 2025 price increases
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 18, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Does it matter who finances the government’s debt?
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 11, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains momentum
Mexico's economy expanded in the second quarter. According to preliminary estimates, GDP grew 6.1 percent annualized quarter over quarter, up from a 2.4 percent contraction in Q1.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth
This paper provides the first causal estimates of the global social returns to U.S. public R&D.
August 04, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
August 04, 2026
Working Paper
Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation
This paper exploits bilateral remittance flows between U.S. and Mexican states during 2013–25 to construct and validate a multi-source origin–destination framework linking Banco de México’s U.S.-state outflows with Mexican state-level receipts.
August 03, 2026
Working Paper
xtcipsunb: The CIPS Panel Unit Root Test for Unbalanced Panel Data
This paper develops and demonstrates the command xtcipsunb, which implements the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test (CIPS) from Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran, Smith and Yamagata (2013) for unbalanced panels.
July 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
July 07, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains some momentum
Mexico’s monthly GDP estimate increased in April, following an annualized 2.4 percent contraction in output in the first quarter of 2026.
June 26, 2026