Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Dallas Fed Economics
Does it matter who finances the government’s debt?
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 11, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains momentum
Mexico's economy expanded in the second quarter. According to preliminary estimates, GDP grew 6.1 percent annualized quarter over quarter, up from a 2.4 percent contraction in Q1.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth
This paper provides the first causal estimates of the global social returns to U.S. public R&D.
August 04, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
August 04, 2026
Working Paper
Subnational Bilateral Remittance Flows in the U.S.-Mexico Corridor: A Multi-Source Imputation and Validation
This paper exploits bilateral remittance flows between U.S. and Mexican states during 2013–25 to construct and validate a multi-source origin–destination framework linking Banco de México’s U.S.-state outflows with Mexican state-level receipts.
August 03, 2026
Working Paper
xtcipsunb: The CIPS Panel Unit Root Test for Unbalanced Panel Data
This paper develops and demonstrates the command xtcipsunb, which implements the cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test (CIPS) from Pesaran (2007) and Pesaran, Smith and Yamagata (2013) for unbalanced panels.
July 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
International comparisons show AI effect on productivity
Because AI use varies across countries, we can draw on international data to investigate the relationship between AI exposure and productivity growth at the sector level. The positive relationship in the U.S. fits a pattern visible among countries and appears related to high AI use.
July 07, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains some momentum
Mexico’s monthly GDP estimate increased in April, following an annualized 2.4 percent contraction in output in the first quarter of 2026.
June 26, 2026
Working Paper
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026