Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Southwest Economy
Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
June 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
June 02, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s forecasting edge ebbed prepandemic, persisted in downside inflation surprises
We compare Federal Reserve Board staff forecasts with professional forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators for headline Consumer Price Index inflation. The relevant question then is not whether inflation forecasts matter, but rather what their content reveals.
May 21, 2026
Southwest Economy
Trader remains bullish on cattle despite economic, contagion threats
Leslie Callahan, a co-founder and principal of cattle trading firm Crossroads Cattle, discusses the reasons behind record-high beef prices and challenges facing the industry.
May 20, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. housing: Unaffordable to buy, but wealth-building to own
A home is not only a place to live. It is a long-lived asset whose value reflects the housing service it provides over time and the return buyers require, given interest rates and risk. The ongoing combination of high house price-to-rent ratios and strained affordability suggests housing remains a macroeconomic vulnerability, though financial conditions appear more resilient than before the housing bust and subsequent Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
May 19, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mexico gains from U.S.-China trade war; inefficiencies limit benefit
A sequence of major economic and geopolitical events has reshaped the structure of global trade in the past decade. It began with U.S. imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. The postpandemic followed with widespread disruption to global value chains—the process of manufacturing a product in stages across several countries.
May 12, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexico’s economy contracts in first quarter
Mexico’s GDP fell an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, according to official preliminary estimates.
May 07, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Effects of realized tariff changes on PCE prices peaked in first quarter 2026
We compare how price growth evolved in 2025 in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) categories facing realized tariff rate changes.
May 05, 2026
Southwest Economy
Ciudad Juarez retools amid job losses
Ciudad Juarez, across the Rio Grande from El Paso, lost nearly one-fifth of its manufacturing jobs over a two-year period. The decline reflects the city’s move into higher value-added, less labor-intensive production of electronics and hardware demanded for the U.S.’s burgeoning data center build-out.
April 08, 2026
Working Paper
The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
April 07, 2026