Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Dallas Fed Economics
Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil
Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline.
October 08, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Tariffs increased in 2025; why did U.S. imports grow?
The U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2.9 percent in January 2025 to 14.8 percent in December, a rise of almost 12 percentage points. The surge—the largest such U.S. jump since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs at the onset of the Great Depression in 1930—led to a sharp increase in the tariff-inclusive prices that U.S. importers paid.
October 06, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy shows mixed signals in the third quarter
Mexico’s economy grew slightly in July, according to preliminary monthly GDP estimates.
September 23, 2026
Working Paper
Globalization, Inflation Dynamics and the Slope of the Phillips Curve
This paper studies how international trade has affected U.S. inflation dynamics. The authors develop a multi-region New Keynesian model of an open monetary union in which regional Phillips curve slopes depend on exposure to imported goods.
September 22, 2026
Special Report
USMCA trade outlook matters for the U.S., not just for Canada and Mexico
While the overall impact on the U.S. of a redrawn regional trade agreement with Mexico and Canada appears modest in most plausible scenarios, policies promoting regionalization differ sharply in their impacts.
August 26, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Mitigating tariffs via USMCA may have limited 2025 price increases
Higher tariffs do not automatically show up one-for-one in consumer prices. Price effects depend on how firms respond. Foreign exporters may cut pre-tariff prices to preserve access to the U.S. market, while domestic importers or retailers may absorb part of the increase with lower margins.
August 18, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Does it matter who finances the government’s debt?
Government debt financed from domestic savings has a smaller effect on interest rates than government debt financed from foreign borrowing, and nations that are net international creditors can borrow more cheaply than net international debtors. These observations help explain massive government borrowing since 2008 while bond yields remained persistently low.
August 11, 2026
Mexico Economic Update
Mexican economy gains momentum
Mexico's economy expanded in the second quarter. According to preliminary estimates, GDP grew 6.1 percent annualized quarter over quarter, up from a 2.4 percent contraction in Q1.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth
This paper provides the first causal estimates of the global social returns to U.S. public R&D.
August 04, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
How USMCA compliance cushioned the 2025 tariff shock
Despite regional sourcing and compliance costs, USMCA-based firms enjoy an edge over competitors outside North America facing higher U.S. tariffs.
August 04, 2026