Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

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Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• The world is responding in an unprecedented destocking. The tariff-driven dumping by China to other countries is preventing competitiveness on a global scale. End consumer demand is down, causing finished product inventories to fall significantly as companies attempt to manage through this unprecedented period. The entire supply chain is backed up by as much as two months, even if the global economic outlook improves. We believe destocking may cease, but orders will be slow to increase due to this two-month backlog in the supply chain.
• General activity in the chemical industry seems to have decreased substantially.

• Uncertainty revolving around tariffs still exists, and reduced tariffs expiring may impact us in the near future. But the level of uncertainty remains constant until a more permanent resolution takes place.
• The only way to improve U.S. capital equipment manufacturing is to lower interest rates so that end users start to invest in American infrastructure. Lowering interest rates should also improve economic conditions, ease uncertainty and combat the tariffs' effects on manufacturing and consumer confidence. Here we are, delaying and being late with the inevitable. Lower interest rates, please.

• Federal Reserve rate hike and inflation comments will decrease demand for our goods and services.
• We expect an uptick in demand and production over the next two months but then expect it to drop off by the fourth quarter.
• It seems there is a slowdown in starting new projects.

• There is too much uncertainty with the Middle East and how it might impact the economy here.
• DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] killed our primary customer. Other customers have seen their sales and profitability decrease or are in a state of stagflation.

• There is no way to predict the future until tariffs are settled. We just have to wait and see. We believe the administration’s moves are based on the moves of their opponents.
• Customers indicate weakening consumer demand and concern about July tariff implementation preventing investment.

• We are seeing increased business activity that we think will expand after the tariff situations are settled.
• Things are about to bust loose. At least that’s what we are praying for, telling ourselves, and thinking about. Let’s hope we’re right.
• [Business] seems to be slowing down a bit.

• Tariffs [are an issue of concern].
• The largest issue is the tariff impact. There are a lot of unknowns about how long they last and exactly what the impact is per item.

• There are still lots of unknowns due to tariff questions. Uncertainty is difficult.
• We are watching the effects of tariff policies on input costs and raw materials.

• Our customers are retailers. Some stronger retailers are investing during this uncertain period. Some of these investments are very challenging. Just what will happen with the tariffs, and how will we respond?

• We are hopeful that the administration maintains or strengthens the Section 232 aluminum tariffs and adds hard quota limits to control the flow of heavily subsidized or dumped aluminum extrusions into our country. Even more importantly, if exemptions to these Section 232 duties are granted to other countries, especially Mexico, our industry will be severely impacted. We would certainly cancel a planned major capital project, as those exempted countries would gain a significant pricing advantage over domestic producers. On top of that, China would continue expanding aluminum manufacturing facilities in Mexico and other exempted countries to capitalize on this imbalance.

• We are fortunate to be busy with some large projects we do at this time of year; otherwise, we would be stupid slow. It's ridiculous how little activity there is, and I have to believe it's because of all the chaos in Washington, D.C. and craziness of tariff uncertainties that is contributing to this. We are now starting to see vendors increasing prices due to a variety of reasons, one of which is tariff recovery.
• Tariff policy may benefit our business, as it is raising costs for those who buy imported product. That will benefit our business. Uncertainty has caused and continues to cause concerns as component costs in our manufacturing process are also subject to drastic price changes.

• June has been a better month with the temporary tariff relief/pause (sales are up, etc). However, no one is sure what to expect in the second half of the year with inflation, input price increases and consumer demand.

• Tariffs are affecting the pricing of domestic steel. As volume increases domestically, the prices are increasing.
• High interest rates stifle our demand.