Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Downloadable chart

Comments from survey respondents

Survey participants are given the opportunity to submit comments on current issues that may be affecting their businesses. Some comments have been edited for grammar and clarity.

• Construction and automotive continue to have severe declines, leading to major impacts on the basic materials markets.

• Please lower interest rates now, like other countries are doing.
• The impact of DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency], early retirements and tariff uncertainty have caused consumers to be cautious and delay purchasing.

• There is a significant slowdown in the progression status of new projects. Pricing competition has seemed to decrease.
• We expect steady demand and production through September, then declining in the fourth quarter. Tariff costs are expected to continue increasing production material costs.

• Recent tariff announcements to countries where we purchase raw materials and packaging supplies will strain our operations and result in price increases, potentially leading to decreased demand.
• Demand has been soft all summer. Our outlook has dimmed recently, with the volume of new orders declining. New business has been tougher to convert.
• I feel a little better now regarding geopolitical issues than in June. I am still a little concerned and worried but not as much as in June.
• DOGE, opaque government policy and stagflation [are issues of concern].

• Tariff changes require a sit back and watch attitude. There is no way to forecast.

• We are starting to see orders roll in at a much higher rate than we have in previous months.
• In many respects, we seem to be kicking the same can down the same proverbial road, but I, personally, feel like I see the light at the end of the tunnel. My team disagrees with me in some respects, but we're all hopeful that the fourth quarter  and into 2026 will bring to fruition what we had expected to occur already by now.
• We build machines (capital equipment) in five segments: oil and gas, defense, marine, hydropower and nuclear power. All of these segments are spending money, and the vibe is positive.

• Tariffs [are an issue of concern].
• Tariff impacts continue to hurt our overall business and profitability.

• Tariffs. Tariffs. Tariffs. Did I mention Tariffs?

• Business is maintained at a reduced level that has our outlook somewhat negative.

• Our industry is closely tied to the building and construction market, which remains softer than in previous years. The transportation industry, particularly for trailer manufacturing, is down significantly. Building and construction and transportation are the two largest markets for our products. However, that downturn is being partially offset by the ongoing trend of onshoring manufactured goods, driven largely by tariffs. One major challenge in recent years has been Mexico’s exemption from Section 232 tariffs, which created a significant disadvantage for U.S. manufacturers in our markets. With that exemption now lifted, we’re seeing a more level playing field. This change should benefit our industry, particularly as China had been setting up operations in Mexico to bypass tariffs and enter the U.S. market tariff-free. Fair trade is critical, and the enforcement of tariffs like Section 232 is a step in the right direction for protecting and strengthening U.S. manufacturing.
• Capital is being spent to add product offerings to increase business activity

• The tariff matters continue to cause major uncertainty. It is impossible to plan. It is causing uncertainty throughout the supply chain.
• If not for a few large jobs, we would be very slow and laying off workers. Things, however, have picked up the last few weeks with lots more quote activity and orders being entered. I still feel all the chaos and uncertainty over tariffs are having a very negative effect on demand in our market. I am hopeful it will improve six months from now.

• We are starting to see vendors and suppliers pass on more price increases, with "tariffs" being the explanation. We are weighing our options for passing this price increase on to our buyers, eating the additional cost/reducing our margin, or a combination of the two.

• We are implementing layoffs and reduced working hours in August.

Special questions

For this month’s survey, Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on labor market conditions. Results below include responses from participants of all three surveys: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey. View individual survey results.