U.S. Economy

This paper introduces a novel measure of contagion intensity that significantly forecasts Bitcoin volatility, trading volume and market crashes.

This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This paper provides a narrative analysis of postwar federal appropriations for the research and development (R&D) activities of the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation—five agencies that consistently account for the vast majority of federal outlays for all types of R&D.

Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.

A large number of companies operating in the EV and battery supply chain have listed on a U.S. stock exchange in recent years. This paper compiles a unique data set of high-frequency stock returns for those companies and investigates the extent to which an “industry” factor specific to the EV and battery supply chain (an “EV” factor) can explain their returns.

Married men work more hours than men who have never been married. Fixed effect regressions reveal that part of this gap is attributable to an increase in work around the time of marriage.