Not all price increases are equal; pandemic-era outliers drove inflation spike
Many individual price changes make up widely used gauges of inflation. Their relative importance changes over time and may affect how consumers perceive inflation. Such perceptions can prompt households to update their inflation expectations, decreasing optimism about real economic activity.
June 18, 2024
Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
May 21, 2024
Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
April 02, 2024
Disparate supply-side forces gave U.S. economy an edge
The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.
March 26, 2024
Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
March 05, 2024
Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
February 20, 2024
U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
As consumer prices have climbed at a faster rate in Texas and surrounding states than nationally—food and shelter increasing even more—Texans are feeling especially stressed about rising prices.
November 07, 2023
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
October 19, 2023
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Financial conditions and the monetary policy outlook
In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the monetary policy implications of recent rises in long-term interest rates depend on whether the increases result from economic strength or elevated term premiums.
October 09, 2023