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Energy

 

  • Energy Indicators

    Natural gas liquids production increased in 2024 as did exports. The number of U.S. chemical railcar loadings remained flat compared to last year. Intermediate chemical prices have risen in recent months, while chemical export numbers, adjusted for inflation, are on the decline.

  • Geopolitical oil price risk not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations

    Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.

  • Energy Indicators

    U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to continue to grow further into 2025. From October 2024 through the beginning of this year, U.S. natural gas and heating oil prices remained fairly steady.

  • Solar, battery capacity saved the Texas grid last summer; an uncertain future awaits

    As ERCOT forecasts accelerated load growth due to anticipated data center construction and electrification trends, the current generation mix and market design should garner increased scrutiny.

  • Surveys

    Oil and gas activity edges higher as outlooks brighten

    Activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in fourth quarter 2024, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

  • Energy Indicators

    Gasoline and diesel prices have come down since 2022. While motor gasoline consumption was low compared with historic trends, distillate fuel consumption was significantly weak in 2024.

  • Electric reliability concerns spur Texas backup generation boom

    Amid growing concerns about reliability of electricity services across power-hungry Texas, deployment of back-up power sources—microgrids and alternative generation—is increasing. These assets, serving customers ranging from college campuses to oilfield operations, help keep the lights on when disaster strikes.

  • Energy Indicators

    The capital expenditures index from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey as well as business investment in mining were nearly flat in third quarter 2024. Increases in the development cost index for Exploration and Production (E&P) firms are increasing at a faster rate than input costs for oil and gas (O&G) support service firms.

  • Permian Basin Economic Indicators

    Employment in the Permian Basin region contracted in the third quarter. The unemployment rate and average hourly earnings ticked down slightly in September.

  • Speech by President Lorie K. Logan

    Navigating in shallow waters: Monetary policy strategy in a better-balanced economy

    After a voyage through rough waters, the shore is in sight: the FOMC’s Congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices. But the ship hasn't tied up yet, and risks remain that could push the economy back out to sea or slam it into the dock too hard.