Expiring solar tax credits shine a light on benefit inequities
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a broad package of federal spending and tax policies signed into law in July 2025, spells trouble for the residential solar industry.
November 20, 2025
Transfer payments, household savings play key roles in growing U.S. deficit
While recent levels of government borrowing have been high, private savings by U.S. residents have been elevated as well. As a result, overall borrowing for the entire U.S economy has been remarkably stable.
November 18, 2025
Payment system design can encourage intraday liquidity efficiency
Efficient allocation of bank reserves improves central bank balance sheet efficiency. Frictions in such redistribution can affect monetary policy implementation.
October 02, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for panel titled ‘Post-Pandemic Challenges for Monetary Policy Implementation’
At the Banco de México’s conference on the future of central banking, President Lorie Logan discussed how central banks can return their assets and liabilities to normal after expanding their balance sheets in response to the pandemic.
August 25, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for panel titled ‘The increasing role of nonbank institutions in the Treasury and money markets’
As moderator of a panel discussion, Dallas Fed President Logan gathered industry experts’ views on the role of nonbank institutions in Treasury and money markets and how to enhance these markets’ resilience.
May 19, 2025
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
April 03, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for panel on ‘Future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas’
At the Bank for International Settlements’ Chapultepec Conference, Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan discussed future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas and the role of the neutral interest rate.
February 06, 2025
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 08, 2024
Anticipatory discount window stigma
Observers often assert that stigma—a perception that depositors, investors or others will penalize an institution for borrowing from the discount window—keeps banks from borrowing when they should, making the facilities less effective. Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues that some harms of discount window stigma can be mitigated regardless of whether stigma itself persists.
September 06, 2024