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Forecasting

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.5 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.3 to 2.7 percent.

  • Foundational considerations in a changing economy

    President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.

  • Dallas Fed Economics

    Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable

    The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.2 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.5 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.4 to 2.4 percent.

  • Dallas Fed Economics

    Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve

    In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.

  • Dallas Fed Economics

    Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation

    U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.4 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 2.9 percent. 

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 2.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.2 percent.