Research Department Working Papers
The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices
This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
March 26, 2024
Disparate supply-side forces gave U.S. economy an edge
The U.S. economy boasts robust growth and slowing inflation despite the highest interest rates in two decades. Such performance isn’t common globally, especially among other advanced economies, revealing crucial differences in the fundamental factors driving inflation and growth.
March 26, 2024
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Discussion of ‘Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?’ by Wenxin Du, Kristin Forbes and Matthew Luzzetti
President Logan discussed a new report on quantitative tightening around the world and implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
March 01, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
This paper builds a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades.
February 07, 2024
U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
January 09, 2024
Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.
November 14, 2023
Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
A series of emergency drawdowns, exchanges and planned sales since 2020 have reduced crude oil inventories held by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Calls to fully refill the SPR in recent months raise important questions.
October 03, 2023
Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
September 26, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment
This paper shows that a negative global shock (rise in global risk-aversion) generates an identical drop in gross inflows and outflows.
August 23, 2023