Dallas Fed Economics
More household savings offset increased government borrowing since 2008
Large government budget deficits over the past 15 years have led to a large increase in the stock of government debt. But these government deficits have been matched by an increase in U.S. household savings.
November 26, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Blame higher U.S. equity prices for recent moves in U.S. external liabilities
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
November 12, 2024
Working Paper
Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?
This paper studies the effects of exposure to structural labor demand shocks during youth and adolescence on human capital accumulation and later-life earnings.
November 09, 2024
Working Paper
What Imports to Import Prices?
This study offers new insights into exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using U.S. import price indexes by country-of-origin, covering two decades of monthly data.
October 25, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 22, 2024
Working Paper
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
September 03, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 13, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Trade liberalization reduces entrepreneurship rate
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
August 06, 2024
Working Paper
Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
August 05, 2024