Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 22, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.
April 18, 2025
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
April 01, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.
March 28, 2025
Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 25, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.
March 17, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.4 percent.
February 07, 2025
As population trends shift, where will future workers come from?
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
January 07, 2025
Inflation stress and concern remain elevated despite stabilizing prices
Despite consumer price inflation falling considerably since peaking in 2022, household inflation-related stress and concern remain elevated, having dropped only slightly.
December 31, 2024
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast estimates jobs will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.5 to 1.7 percent.
December 20, 2024