Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.
November 14, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.3 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 3.1 to 3.5 percent.
October 20, 2023
Strong U.S. labor market drives record remittances to Mexico
Remittances from the U.S. to Mexico reached a record $55.9 billion in 2022. Strong employment in the U.S. construction sector—a leading employer of Mexican migrants—best explains the recent growth of remittances to Mexico.
October 20, 2023
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
October 19, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 2.9 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.3 percent.
September 15, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men
Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage.
August 29, 2023
Texas natives likeliest to ‘stick’ around, pointing to state’s economic health
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
August 29, 2023
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates that jobs will increase 3.0 percent in 2023, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.6 to 3.4 percent.
August 18, 2023
Labor market recovery and wage growth unequal across age groups after pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic severely depressed U.S. labor force participation. Although the pandemic has eased, people ages 20–24 and those over 55 have been less likely to return to the workforce.
August 02, 2023
Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
August 01, 2023