Dallas Fed Economics
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
January 13, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast implies that employment growth was around zero in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.3 to 0.3 percent.
January 09, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI?
January 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 0.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 1.1 percent.
December 11, 2025
Dallas Fed Communities
How might artificial intelligence affect Texas’ good jobs?
Recent Dallas Fed research emphasizes that AI can either help or replace workers depending on the nuance of their occupations. But how might AI affect jobs that don’t require bachelor’s degrees but still pay self-sustaining wages?
November 04, 2025
Southwest Economy
Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth
Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas businesses this year.
October 17, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
October 09, 2025
Speeches and essays
Why I’ll be cautious about further rate cuts
While the labor market has undeniably slowed, not all of the slowing represents economic slack, and inflation remains persistently above target.
September 30, 2025
Working Paper
Subcontracting in Federal Spending: Micro and Macro Implications
This paper studies the critical but underexplored role of subcontracting in shaping the spatial and firm-level effects of federal government spending.
September 22, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.
September 19, 2025