Dallas Fed Economics
Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
May 27, 2025
Austin, Texas
Innovation flourishes in Austin
Austin continues to grow as a place where research and creativity flourish. On a recent trip to the Texas capital, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan visited with people representing various stages of the innovation cycle, from cutting-edge research to developing real-life applications.
May 23, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.3 percent.
May 16, 2025
Working Papers
An Information-Based Theory of Monopsony Power
This paper develops a tractable model of monopsony power based on information frictions in job search.
May 13, 2025
Abilene, Texas
In Abilene, Big Country success depends on small-town community
Abilene anchors a 19-county rural region dubbed “The Big Country” by early pioneers. Collaboration was a consistent theme in Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's conversations with community and business leaders during a recent trip to the area.
May 09, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Job cyclicality provides timely signals on Texas, U.S. business cycle
The cyclicality of industries and their behavior provide early indications of economic turning points in Texas and the U.S. and provide a timelier view than other data that are widely used to confirm downturns and expansions.
April 22, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 to 2.2 percent.
April 18, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Strong U.S. employment driven by sectors less sensitive to business cycles
The U.S. has enjoyed strong payroll job gains in the past couple of years despite generally restrictive monetary policy. The sectoral composition of employment reveals job growth has been concentrated in areas that are the least sensitive to national employment fluctuations over the business cycle.
April 01, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.6 percent.
March 28, 2025
Even a ‘miracle’ needs a safety net: Texas leads in growth, lags elsewhere
While experiencing exceptional economic growth over the past decade, data show that Texas is last or lagging the nation in several key areas.
March 25, 2025