Monetary policy

 

• Calibrating central bank inflation messages is key to policy success

  A well-crafted message about the current and future state of the economy can influence the private sector’s expectations and guide behavior to ensure that the economy remains strong and prices stable even amid threatening supply-and-demand shocks.

  March 28, 2023

• Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates

  While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.

  February 28, 2023

• Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks

  The COVID-19 pandemic, recent monetary tightening and a strengthening U.S. dollar were the themes explored during a recent conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) and held at CEMLA’s Mexico City headquarters.

  February 16, 2023

• Research Department Working Papers

  Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks

  This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in consumers’ adoption of FinTech lending, which amplifies the effects of a monetary stimulus.

  February 14, 2023

• Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects

  Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.

  February 07, 2023

• Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge

  The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.

  December 27, 2022

• Research Department Working Papers

  A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks

  This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.

  December 21, 2022

• Globalization Institute Working Paper

  Commodity Exports, Financial Frictions and International Spillovers

  This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models.

  December 16, 2022

• Does employers’ worker poaching explain the Beveridge curve’s odd behavior?

  Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.

  November 22, 2022

• Skimming U.S. housing froth a delicate, daunting task

  U.S. house prices appreciated a remarkable 94.5 percent from first quarter 2013 to second quarter 2022—a 60.8 percent rise after adjusting for inflation.

  November 15, 2022