What might inflation look like next year?
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 14, 2021
Life insurers’ preference for familiar bond issuers limits COVID-19 shock transmission
Despite regulations that encourage diversification and informational symmetry among buyers, insurance companies tend to lend to their current borrowers. This bondholder–issuer relationship moderates the effect of transitory economic shocks such as those associated with the onset of COVID-19.
October 05, 2021
Taking the global housing market’s temperature: Is it running a fever (again)?
The current trajectory prompts the question: Do markets face the prospect of a housing bubble once again? Alternatively, are price increases in step with housing market fundamentals?
September 28, 2021
Using inflation expectations to boost consumer spending poses policy risks
Communication that raises inflation expectations has been suggested as a policy tool for central banks. Our research suggests that this policy tool has some limitations that central banks must manage when implementing it.
September 07, 2021
Fed’s mortgage-backed securities purchases sought calm, accommodation during pandemic
We explore the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency MBS—mortgage bonds guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac—and related market dynamics during the pandemic, including why mortgage rates fell to historic lows.
August 26, 2021
Don’t Look to the 2013 Tantrum for the Effect of Tapering on Emerging Markets
Many emerging markets have improved their external balance sheets since the volatility evidenced during the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and would be much less vulnerable to Federal Reserve tapering today.
August 10, 2021
What the trimmed mean says about future inflation: broadening price pressures ahead
As we look ahead to the rest of this year and into 2022, we expect that even as some of the extreme price increases responsible for the recent surge in headline inflation fade, a broader swath of goods and services will show meaningful price increases.
July 01, 2021
Central bankers need to take note of transition to clean energy
The path from traditional energy sources to alternative sources with lower greenhouse gas emissions—including renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage—is long and paved with abundant uncertainty.
June 01, 2021
The labor market may be tighter than the level of employment suggests
With payroll employment remaining well below its prior peak, slow job growth would typically suggest weak demand for labor from firms and limited employment opportunities for job seekers. Current conditions in the labor market, however, may be far from typical.
May 27, 2021
Fed’s new inflation targeting policy seeks to maintain well-anchored inflation expectations
The Fed’s evolving understanding of the economy and its reassessment of the natural rate of interest have led to arguably the most significant policy change since 2012.
April 06, 2021