December 28, 2021
John V. Duca and Anthony Murphy
In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.
December 23, 2021
Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng
Continued growth in the national economy, strong increases in Texas leading indicators and high oil futures prices suggest continued strong job growth for the remainder of the year and into 2022.
December 21, 2021
Michael D. Plante
A large-scale conversion to electric vehicles (EVs), necessary for a successful transition from fossil fuels, has yet to occur despite dramatic improvements in battery costs and performance over the past decade.
November 30, 2021
J. Scott Davis and Eric van Wincoop
The amount of leverage—borrowed funds relative to the value of underlying assets—increases for risky holdings during downturns, motivating their ultimate sale to achieve a more secure financial position. The opposite occurs during upswings, as risky assets gain favor.
November 23, 2021
Lutz Kilian and Xiaoqing Zhou
Predictions of $100 per barrel oil during the coming winter have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. However, quantitative analysis suggests that these concerns have been overstated.
November 16, 2021
Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk
The overall impact on business of the summer and fall wave of the COVID-19 virus infection was more muted than initial surges because firms were better prepared and demand didn’t plunge as it did before, according to respondents to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys.
November 9, 2021
Judy Teng and Christopher Slijk
Regional economic activity accelerated sharply in September and October following a summer and early-fall peak of a COVID-19 wave tied to the Delta variant.
October 19, 2021
Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran and Ron P. Smith
"Great ratios" are widely adopted in theoretical models in economics as conditions for balanced growth, arbitrage or solvency. However, the empirical literature has tended to find little evidence for them.
October 14, 2021
Tyler Atkinson, Jonah Danziger and Alex Richter
In our baseline scenario, core inflation is 2.6 percent in 2022. If this occurs, core inflation will have averaged 2.4 percent over the last five years, moderately above the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation target.
October 12, 2021
James Lee, Pia Orrenius and Ana Pranger
Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.