Dallas Fed Economics Archive

• August 16, 2022
  Rent inflation expected to accelerate then moderate in mid-2023

  Xiaoqing Zhou and Jim Dolmas

  With housing price moderation, it is important to assess the implications for rent inflation and OER inflation and, in particular, whether they may soon ease and help slow overall inflation.
• August 9, 2022
  Firm debt structure can mitigate impact of uncertainty shock

  Ali Ozdagli, Jianlin Wang and Sona Shah

  We found evidence that the way a firm structures its debt can mitigate a significant amount of the negative effects from uncertainty shocks, especially for zombie firms.
• August 4, 2022
  Signs of slowdown growing in Texas; price pressures ease

  Mytiah Caldwell and Yichen Su

  The Texas economy continued expanding in June and July, though at a decelerating pace compared with earlier this year.
• August 2, 2022
  U.S. likely didn’t slip into recession in early 2022 despite negative GDP growth

  Tyler Atkinson, Victor Wei and Xiaoqing Zhou

  Most indicators—particularly those measuring labor markets—provide strong evidence that the U.S. economy did not fall into a recession in the first quarter.
• July 12, 2022
  Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?

  Scott Davis, Michael B. Devereux and Changhua Yu

  As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
• July 5, 2022
  Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons

  Enrique Martínez García

  Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.
• June 28, 2022
  Initial unemployment claims appear stable over past several months

  Tyler Atkinson and Victor Wei

  It is likely that the latest rise in initial claims reflects difficulty adjusting the data for seasonal patterns in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than a deterioration in underlying economic conditions.
• June 23, 2022
  Texas economy retains strength despite weakening outlooks

  Laila Assanie and Keighton Hines

  Texas’ economic expansion remained solid in May, though the pace of growth decelerated. Employment gains continued to be robust. Manufacturing output growth accelerated, but revenue growth in services slowed.
• June 21, 2022
  High fuel prices in the U.S. may crimp oil demand soon

  Garrett Golding

  If prices climb higher, expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.
• May 31, 2022
  Russia counters sanctions’ impact with currency controls, averts crisis (for now)

  Scott Davis, Ippei Fujiwara, Kevin X.D. Huang and Jiao Wang

  The Russian central bank responded to unprecedented sanctions with strict capital controls that have stabilized the value of its currency—the ruble.