Articles providing critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
Working Paper
Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks
Global non-U.S. banks have significant dollar exposure both on and off their balance sheet. This paper develops a model to analyze their adjustment to dollar funding shocks, whether from reduced direct lending or external dollar shortages.
August 12, 2025
Working Paper
A History of U.S. Tariffs: Quantifying Strategic Trade-Offs in Tariff Policy Design
U.S. tariff policy has historically balanced competing goals—revenue, protection and reciprocity. Policy priorities have shifted over time in response to changing economic and political conditions. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, this paper illustrates these trade-offs through the lens of tariff Laffer curves.
August 05, 2025
Working Paper
The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
This paper studies empirically and theoretically the effects of international financial flows on resource allocation.
August 01, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.
July 17, 2025
Special Report
China remains modest player in U.S.–Mexico trade despite growing scrutiny
Understanding Mexico’s evolving economic linkages with East Asia and China is critical to the future of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA trade accord) and the nearshoring and integration of North American manufacturing supply chains.
July 09, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Declining immigration weighs on GDP growth, with little impact on inflation
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
July 08, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Advances in AI will boost productivity, living standards over time
Artificial intelligence offers the potential to improve people’s living standards. Such advances can be approximated by changes in GDP per capita over time. Using that common measure, AI could enhance longstanding productivity gains or, alternatively, drastically alter the economy in relatively short order.
June 24, 2025
Mexico Economic Update
Mexico’s economy shows mixed signals
The latest data available indicated a mixed economic outlook as employment and remittances fell, while output primarily driven by agriculture, industrial production, exports and retail sales grew.
June 20, 2025
Working Paper
Analysis of Multiple Long-Run Relations in Panel Data Models
This paper proposes a novel methodology that filters out the short-run dynamics using sub-sample time averages as deviations from their full-sample counterpart, and estimates the number of long-run relations and their coefficients using eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the pooled covariance matrix of these sub-sample deviations.
June 05, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
June 03, 2025