Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons
Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.
July 05, 2022
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2022
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 7.3 percent in May after increasing an annualized 2.9 percent in April.
June 30, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
High fuel prices in the U.S. may crimp oil demand soon
If prices climb higher, expect consumers to respond by cutting back on fuel consumption and overall spending sooner than later.
June 21, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Russia’s war on Ukraine will leave scars on U.S., world economies
The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.
May 17, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations
Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
April 05, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Nominal GDP outlook suggests it’s time to end monetary accommodation
We argue that the policy response to COVID-19 has been broadly on track to date but that continued monetary accommodation (lowering interest rates or purchasing assets) risks fueling excessive inflation.
January 13, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Why house prices surged as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold
In the wake of the short but steep COVID-19 recession, house prices have risen at record levels in recent months, hitting the peak increase of 19.3 percent in July 2021.
December 28, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23
Predictions of $100 per barrel oil during the coming winter have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. However, quantitative analysis suggests that these concerns have been overstated.
November 23, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
Using inflation expectations to boost consumer spending poses policy risks
Communication that raises inflation expectations has been suggested as a policy tool for central banks. Our research suggests that this policy tool has some limitations that central banks must manage when implementing it.
September 07, 2021