Economic Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume and demand accelerated in June after little to no growth in the prior survey.
June 30, 2025
Economic surveys
Agricultural Survey
Bankers responding to the second-quarter agriculture survey reported mildly improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.
June 23, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas service sector activity declines modestly
Texas service sector activity contracted in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
May 28, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity held steady in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
May 27, 2025
Working Paper
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Economic Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume grew slightly while loan demand was unchanged in May. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.
May 19, 2025
Economic Surveys
Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but company outlooks deteriorated further
Texas service sector activity grew slightly in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose three points to 3.8, indicating a small increase in revenue.
April 29, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity continued to rise in April. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however.
April 28, 2025
Working Paper
Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve adopted Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), permitting inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using synthetic control methods, this paper estimates that FAIT raised headline CPI inflation by 1 percentage point and core CPI by 0.5 percentage points, relative to a no-FAIT-adoption counterfactual, with short-lived effects concentrated during the 2021 inflation surge.
April 09, 2025
Economic Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume and demand growth decelerated sharply in March. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.
April 07, 2025