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Economic surveys

 

  • Texas Economy

    Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but company outlooks deteriorated further

    Texas service sector activity grew slightly in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose three points to 3.8, indicating a small increase in revenue.

  • Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity continued to rise in April. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge

    In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.

  • Surveys

    Banking Conditions Survey

    Loan volume and demand growth decelerated sharply in March. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.

  • Globalization Institute Working Paper

    Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis

    This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.

  • Texas economic outlook downbeat as uncertainty increases

    The Texas economy grew slightly below trend through the first quarter of 2025. While job growth appears just off its long-term annual trend rate of about 2.1 percent, the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point to slowing activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

  • Texas Economy

    Growth decelerates in Texas service sector as company outlooks worsen

    Texas service sector activity stalled in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

  • Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

    Texas factory activity rose in March after declining in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

  • Surveys

    Oil and gas activity edges higher; uncertainty rising, costs increase

    Activity in the oil and gas sector increased slightly in first quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

  • Agricultural Survey

    Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported sustained dry conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.