Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.
March 04, 2025
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Technology and the 1990s Housing Boom
This paper shows that locations exposed to initial adopters of Freddie Mac’s Loan Prospector system experienced an early housing boom due to a switch to statistically-informed underwriting rules.
January 17, 2025
Rents, home values depressed in air pollution hotspots
Wildfire smoke pollution may significantly affect housing market activity in locations hundreds or even thousands of miles away from the fires.
August 27, 2024
How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 13, 2024
Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
May 28, 2024
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Time-varying Persistence of House Price Growth: The Role of Expectations and Credit Supply
High persistence is a prominent feature of price movements in U.S. housing markets, i.e., house prices grow faster this period if they grew faster last period. This paper provides two additional new insights to the literature on U.S. house price movements.
May 14, 2024
Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
April 02, 2024
U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
January 02, 2024