Dallas Fed Economics
Real-time house price model shows U.S. housing market firming
House prices matter to more than just individual homebuyers and sellers. They are closely tied to consumer spending, business investment and the broader path of the economy.
January 15, 2026
Southwest Economy
Higher interest rates transform housing market, Texas real estate workforce
A pandemic-era period of relatively low interest rates and rising house prices drew a record number of new real estate agents to the field. Home prices have since remained high, but elevated interest rates and slowing sales have made the industry less attractive.
January 07, 2026
Southwest Economy
Texas electricity providers draw on variety of sources
Jim Burke, president and chief executive officer of Vistra Corp., the largest competitive power producer in the country, discusses the outlook for electric power generation in Texas as data centers and artificial intelligence demands are expected to reframe the business.
December 12, 2025
Southwest Economy
Fast-growing Texas metros offer blueprint to handle U.S. housing shortage
Cullum Clark, director of the Bush Institute–SMU Economic Growth Initiative and an adjunct professor of economics at Southern Methodist University, discusses his recent report, “Build Homes, Expand Opportunity: Lessons from America’s Fastest-Growing Cities.”
November 17, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Bubble thought: What beliefs can reveal about housing market risks
Survey-based forecast data on home price growth are a surer indicator of housing market exuberance than traditional valuation ratios, such as price-to-income or price-to-rent.
September 02, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Falling rates no assurance of homeowner refinancing binge
When the Fed lowers its benchmark policy rate, the reduction is usually reflected in a variety of consumer finance rates, notably mortgages. However, there are reasons to believe that such a reduction might not prompt an increase in the volume of mortgage refinances and prepayment activity as has historically occurred.
August 14, 2025
Working Papers
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Working Papers
Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market
Borrowers who refinanced mortgages between 2009 and 2012, a period marked by mortgage distress and dislocated housing markets, but also falling interest rates, were more likely to vote in the 2012 general election than similar borrowers who did not refinance. This paper exploits an eligibility cutoff in the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify a causal relationship.
May 12, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Decline in bank stress likely to continue as interest rates normalize
While the key measures suggest that conditions that hamper a bank’s resilience to economic adversity are marginally higher than before the pandemic in 2019, we expect further declines in bank stress levels as interest rates normalize.
March 04, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline
The ratio of house prices to rents in the U.S. has risen 20 percent since first quarter 2020, coinciding with the beginning of the pandemic. The ratio is near its previous high in 2006. The future course of inflation may well be influenced by how this now-lofty ratio reverts to a more usual level.
February 25, 2025