August 29, 2023
Ana Pranger, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
Based on a calculation measuring the share of people born in each state who still live there, Texas is the nation’s “stickiest” state. The natives aren’t leaving.
August 22, 2023
Ricardo Nunes, Ali Ozdagli, Jenny Tang and Japji Singh
Unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy moves can profoundly affect market participants, investors and the economy. The impact of policy stems not only from its direct effects—the traditional focus for economists—but also from the new information revealed about the Fed’s economic outlook.
August 15, 2023
Alexander Chudik and Anil Kumar
The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.
August 8, 2023
Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.
August 3, 2023
Aparna Jayashankar and Yichen Su
Texas job growth slowed in June, though it still exceeded the U.S. rate. Meanwhile, the state economy continued to expand despite the downshift in employment and weakness in manufacturing.
August 1, 2023
Emily Kerr and Tyler Atkinson
Fed policymakers working to reduce inflation have closely monitored how fast wages have risen. National estimates put recent 12-month wage inflation at around 4–5 percent, though these measures can lag other indicators of labor market conditions. More timely wage data can be found from the five regional Federal Reserve Banks that run business surveys.
July 11, 2023
Luis Torres
Mexico's emergence followed fractious U.S. relations with China, which had moved past Canada to claim the top trading spot in 2014. The dynamic changed in 2018 when the U.S. imposed tariffs on China’s goods and with subsequent pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions that altered international trade and investment flows worldwide.
July 3, 2023
Enrique Martínez García
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
June 27, 2023
Scott Davis
The United States has a large negative net-foreign-asset position, especially in safe assets. In times of crisis, U.S. government debt, especially short-term Treasuries, are viewed as a safe haven. As a result, the U.S. is a net debtor. It is more leveraged and tends to hold more risky assets (mostly equities) and finance those positions by selling safe-asset debt to the rest of the world.
June 22, 2023
Anil Kumar and Ana Pranger
Texas employment growth advanced in May, continuing to surpass the national average.