Working Papers
Disparate Impacts of Teacher Certification Exams
This paper uses Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates.
February 10, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.1 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent.
February 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
December job growth was 1.7 percent in Texas, according to employment data released today by the Texas Workforce Commission and early benchmarked by the Dallas Fed. Job growth in 2025 came in at 0.1 percent (10,700 jobs), below the state’s long-term average growth of 2.0 percent.
January 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Communities
Salary not sole concern for young adults weighing career decisions, focus groups find
While challenging economic conditions were top of mind for many participants, they also considered personal and practical factors.
January 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
January 13, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast implies that employment growth was around zero in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.3 to 0.3 percent.
January 09, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI?
January 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 0.9 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 1.1 percent.
December 11, 2025
Southwest Economy
Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth
Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas businesses this year.
October 17, 2025
Dallas Fed Economics
Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
October 09, 2025