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Labor

  • Immigration crackdown likely contributing to weak Texas job growth

    Findings from the Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) suggest immigration policy changes will negatively affect the ability to hire and retain foreign-born workers at one in five Texas businesses this year.

  • Break-even employment declined after immigration changes

    Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.

  • Renewable energy jobs surge, though data differ on where and by how much

    Better understanding of the workforce implications of rising electricity demand, particularly at the state and local levels, is critical to planning and anticipating its economic and policy impacts.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.5 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 1.9 percent.

  • Texas economy softens amid uncertain outlook

    Texas’ overall pace of economic growth is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    The Fatal Consequences of Brain Drain

    This paper examines the welfare consequences of reallocating high-skilled labor across national borders.

  • Texas Employment Forecast

    The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.

  • Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy

    Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.

  • Research Department Working Papers

    Why Do Households Save and Work?

    This paper develops and estimates a dynamic life-cycle model to quantify why households save and work. The model incorporates multiple sources of risk—health, marital status, wages, medical expenses and mortality—as well as endogenous labor supply and human capital accumulation, retirement, and bequest motives at the death of the first and last household member.