Dallas Fed Economics
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds
The United States has a large negative net-foreign-asset position, especially in safe assets. In times of crisis, U.S. government debt, especially short-term Treasuries, are viewed as a safe haven. As a result, the U.S. is a net debtor. It is more leveraged and tends to hold more risky assets (mostly equities) and finance those positions by selling safe-asset debt to the rest of the world.
June 27, 2023
A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle
This paper develops a theory to account for changes in net capital flows of safe and risky assets over the global financial cycle.
May 05, 2023
Mexico awaits ‘nearshoring’ shift as China boosts its direct investment
When it comes to trading goods with the United States, Mexico would appear a logical sourcing alternative to China. Before the pandemic, increasing friction between the U.S. and China—the top supplier of goods imports to the U.S. in 2019—contributed to an anticipated “nearshoring” shift among companies dependent on Asia.
April 14, 2023
On the Distributional Effects of International Tariffs
This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners.
March 29, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold
Fluctuations in the global financial cycle, reflecting impacts from the COVID crisis, account for roughly one-third of the movement in emerging-market inflows during 2020–23.
March 07, 2023
Preventing and responding to dysfunction in core markets
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks at the Workshop on Market Dysfunction at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
March 03, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.
February 28, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Dallas Fed, Latin American central banks explore financial stability risks
The COVID-19 pandemic, recent monetary tightening and a strengthening U.S. dollar were the themes explored during a recent conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) and held at CEMLA’s Mexico City headquarters.
February 16, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Tax, transfer programs explain why Western Europeans work less than Americans
Western Europe differs from the United States not only in consumption tax, income tax and social security systems but also in the total factor productivity—a measure of productivity—for market production in which most European countries are low.
January 19, 2023