Speeches and essays
Discussion of ‘Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?’ by Wenxin Du, Kristin Forbes and Matthew Luzzetti
President Logan discussed a new report on quantitative tightening around the world and implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
March 01, 2024
Working Paper
Demographic Transition, Industrial Policies and Chinese Economic Growth
This paper builds a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades.
February 07, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
January 09, 2024
Working Paper
Offshore Dollar Funding Shocks and the Dollar Exchange Rate
This paper proposes a model with limited CIP and UIP arbitrage where the CIP deviation and exchange rate are jointly determined by equilibrium in the swap and spot FX markets.
December 15, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Korea, Japan growth experiences suggest China’s economy to slow in next 20 years
The Chinese economy has grown at an unprecedented pace since the 1980s. However, the pace of growth is likely to slow as China’s economy matures because of its demographic structure and its increasing proximity to economic and technological frontiers.
November 14, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
A series of emergency drawdowns, exchanges and planned sales since 2020 have reduced crude oil inventories held by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Calls to fully refill the SPR in recent months raise important questions.
October 03, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Mexican peso strength noteworthy among emerging markets during Fed tightening
Many emerging-market currencies have depreciated modestly during the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle that began in March 2022. The Mexican peso, however, outperformed the group during the period.
September 26, 2023
Working Paper
A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment
This paper shows that a negative global shock (rise in global risk-aversion) generates an identical drop in gross inflows and outflows.
August 23, 2023
Dallas Fed Economics
Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes
Earlier episodes of sizable Fed tightening preceded destabilizing currency devaluations in emerging markets, precipitating sovereign debt and banking crises in many of those economies.
August 08, 2023