Dallas Fed Economics
Vaccines were key to curbing COVID-19 in Europe; other measures also useful
Vaccine uptake was the most important factor in reducing effective transmission rates in 2021, though the other factors helped bring infections under control.
August 23, 2022
Uncertainty, Stock Prices and Debt Structure: Evidence from the U.S.-China Trade War
Using the recent U.S.-China trade war as a laboratory, this paper shows that policy uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on stock prices.
August 19, 2022
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of COVID-19 Transmission Rates in Europe
This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants.
July 12, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Russia counters sanctions’ impact with currency controls, averts crisis (for now)
The Russian central bank responded to unprecedented sanctions with strict capital controls that have stabilized the value of its currency—the ruble.
May 31, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Commodity financing markets shaken by Russia invasion; monitoring for U.S. financial stress
While volatility in commodity markets is not unusual, rapid and correlated price increases across many different types of commodities at once is much rarer.
April 14, 2022
Dallas Fed Economics
Asset prices, leverage and portfolio rebalancing drive global capital flows cycle
The amount of leverage—borrowed funds relative to the value of underlying assets—increases for risky holdings during downturns, motivating their ultimate sale to achieve a more secure financial position. The opposite occurs during upswings, as risky assets gain favor.
November 30, 2021
Dallas Fed Economics
Don’t Look to the 2013 Tantrum for the Effect of Tapering on Emerging Markets
Many emerging markets have improved their external balance sheets since the volatility evidenced during the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and would be much less vulnerable to Federal Reserve tapering today.
August 10, 2021
Special Report
Forging a New Path in North American Trade and Immigration
The proceedings from this 2019 conference explore challenges and opportunities presented by the USMCA.
July 13, 2021