Southwest Economy
Texas job growth expected to pick up following flat 2025
Texas economic output grew in 2025 but did so with near-zero job growth. The last time that happened was in 2002–03, when the state emerged from the dot-com bust into an extended jobless recovery.
February 20, 2026
Working Papers
Disparate Impacts of Teacher Certification Exams
This paper uses Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates.
February 10, 2026
At the Heart of Texas
Dallas–Plano–Irving: Texas’ business and financial services hub
Dallas serves as the business and financial services center for the state and has evolved into a major high-tech, aerospace and defense, and transportation hub. Dallas is the state’s top migrant destination, attracting residents from other states and abroad.
February 06, 2026
At the Heart of Texas
Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands: Texas’ Gulf Coast hub and nation’s energy capital
Houston is Texas’ second-largest metro, accounting for one-quarter of the state’s jobs and 27 percent of its economic output. The metro has diversified as the services, transportation and logistics, and biomedical industries have grown in importance.
February 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.1 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent.
February 06, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
December job growth was 1.7 percent in Texas, according to employment data released today by the Texas Workforce Commission and early benchmarked by the Dallas Fed. Job growth in 2025 came in at 0.1 percent (10,700 jobs), below the state’s long-term average growth of 2.0 percent.
January 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Communities
Salary not sole concern for young adults weighing career decisions, focus groups find
While challenging economic conditions were top of mind for many participants, they also considered personal and practical factors.
January 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
New data show intensifying unauthorized immigration decline, with large local variations
A sudden reversal in U.S. net unauthorized immigration has important implications for the demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth and local labor markets.
January 13, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast implies that employment growth was around zero in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.3 to 0.3 percent.
January 09, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure
In recent years, unemployment has gradually ticked up, and job searchers report increased difficulty finding new work. Is this related to AI?
January 06, 2026