Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.4 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.7 to 2.1 percent.
April 17, 2026
Working Paper
The Power to Discriminate
Economic theory has long linked employer power to discrimination, but theory and empirical applications have seldom considered which form of power matters. This paper distinguishes between labor market and product market power and designs a study to isolate the role each plays in allowing discrimination to persist.
April 16, 2026
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.9 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.7 percent.
April 03, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
March 31, 2026
Working Paper
The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata
From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. This paper provides the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode.
March 23, 2026
Southwest Economy
Construction firms navigate cost, demand challenges in postpandemic era
Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, discusses the state of commercial construction in Texas and the U.S., including ongoing office and data center activity.
February 27, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest
Artificial intelligence’s impact on the labor market will depend on whether the technology automates or augments worker tasks.
February 24, 2026
Southwest Economy
Texas job growth expected to pick up following flat 2025
Texas economic output grew in 2025 but did so with near-zero job growth. The last time that happened was in 2002–03, when the state emerged from the dot-com bust into an extended jobless recovery.
February 20, 2026
Working Paper
Disparate Impacts of Teacher Certification Exams
This paper uses Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates.
February 10, 2026
At the Heart of Texas
Dallas–Plano–Irving: Texas’ business and financial services hub
Dallas serves as the business and financial services center for the state and has evolved into a major high-tech, aerospace and defense, and transportation hub. Dallas is the state’s top migrant destination, attracting residents from other states and abroad.
February 06, 2026