Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
February 11, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Opening remarks for panel on ‘Future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas’
At the Bank for International Settlements’ Chapultepec Conference, Dallas Fed President Lorie K. Logan discussed future challenges for monetary policy in the Americas and the role of the neutral interest rate.
February 06, 2025
Research Department Working Papers
Dynamics of Market Power in Monetary Economies
This paper studies the dynamic interplay between monetary policy and market power in a decentralized monetary economy. Building on Choi and Rocheteau (2024), its key innovation is to model rent seeking as a process that takes time, allowing market power to evolve gradually.
January 07, 2025
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Navigating in shallow waters: Monetary policy strategy in a better-balanced economy
After a voyage through rough waters, the shore is in sight: the FOMC’s Congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and stable prices. But the ship hasn't tied up yet, and risks remain that could push the economy back out to sea or slam it into the dock too hard.
November 13, 2024
Research Department Working Papers
Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg
This paper studies monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a variable credit spread and scope for central bank asset purchases to matter.
November 09, 2024
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Welcoming remarks for the Women in Central Banking Workshop
Remarks delivered at the Women in Central Banking Workshop hosted at the Dallas Fed in collaboration with Norges Bank.
November 01, 2024
International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 22, 2024
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Normalizing the FOMC’s monetary policy tools
President Lorie K. Logan describes policy considerations for normalizing the Fed’s assets and liabilities.
October 21, 2024
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Foundational considerations in a changing economy
President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.
October 09, 2024
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 08, 2024