Working Papers
Monetary Policy Interactions: The Policy Rate, Asset Purchases and Optimal Policy with an Interest Rate Peg
This paper studies monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with a variable credit spread and scope for central bank asset purchases to matter.
November 09, 2024
Welcoming remarks for the Women in Central Banking Workshop
Remarks delivered at the Women in Central Banking Workshop hosted at the Dallas Fed in collaboration with Norges Bank.
November 01, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
International factors broadly explain postpandemic inflation
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 22, 2024
Normalizing the FOMC’s monetary policy tools
President Lorie K. Logan describes policy considerations for normalizing the Fed’s assets and liabilities.
October 21, 2024
Foundational considerations in a changing economy
President Lorie K. Logan offers her views on the evolving economy and how she is continuing to apply foundational considerations to thinking about monetary policy in this new environment.
October 09, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
October 08, 2024
Working Papers
The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications
To determine the impact of the postpandemic U.S. immigration surge, the authors first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are primarily low-skilled relative to the existing workforce and more likely to be hand-to-mouth consumers. They then incorporate these features into a heterogeneous agent model with capital-skill complementarity.
October 01, 2024
Working Papers
The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
September 25, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Impact of inflation shocks on foreign exchange rates reflects central bank stature
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
September 03, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
How the U.S. might outgrow pandemic-era housing (un)affordability problems
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 13, 2024