Dallas Fed Economics
Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 16, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Not all price increases are equal; pandemic-era outliers drove inflation spike
Many individual price changes make up widely used gauges of inflation. Their relative importance changes over time and may affect how consumers perceive inflation. Such perceptions can prompt households to update their inflation expectations, decreasing optimism about real economic activity.
June 18, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Persistence of house-price growth highlights geographic, credit factors
Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.
May 28, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis
During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.
May 21, 2024
Sustainably restoring price stability: progress so far and risks ahead
President Lorie K. Logan shared her views on the economic outlook and monetary policy.
April 05, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Lower interest rates don’t necessarily improve housing affordability
The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.
April 02, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
March 05, 2024
Discussion of ‘Quantitative Tightening Around the Globe: What Have We Learned?’ by Wenxin Du, Kristin Forbes and Matthew Luzzetti
President Logan discussed a new report on quantitative tightening around the world and implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.
March 01, 2024
Dallas Fed Economics
Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
February 20, 2024
Dallas Fed Communities
Economic Inclusion Fireside Chat: Michael Weber and Jeff Fuhrer on an inclusive economy
Michael Weber, an associate professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and Jeff Fuhrer, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and the Eastern Bank Foundation, provided insight into the importance of thinking about diverse communities in policymaking at the inaugural Economic Inclusion Seminar Series Fireside Chat.
February 12, 2024