U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
January 09, 2024
Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
January 02, 2024
Fed credibility enhanced when public finds policymakers relatable
University of Chicago Booth School associate professor Michael Weber explains how audiences are especially receptive to monetary policy messaging delivered by Fed officials whose ethnic or gender background is similar to theirs and outlines the broader implications of such enhanced credibility.
December 06, 2023
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Ample reserves and the Friedman rule
How should central banks supply liquidity in an evolving global financial system? Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shared her framework for weighing the tradeoffs in a keynote address at the European Central Bank.
November 10, 2023
Texas among states feeling most stressed by inflation
As consumer prices have climbed at a faster rate in Texas and surrounding states than nationally—food and shelter increasing even more—Texans are feeling especially stressed about rising prices.
November 07, 2023
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
October 19, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.
October 10, 2023
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Financial conditions and the monetary policy outlook
In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the monetary policy implications of recent rises in long-term interest rates depend on whether the increases result from economic strength or elevated term premiums.
October 09, 2023
Speech by President Lorie K. Logan
Restoring price stability requires careful calibration
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks before the Dallas Business Club at Southern Methodist University.
September 07, 2023