Whose wages are falling behind the least amid surging inflation?
For a majority of workers, wages didn’t increase as fast as inflation in the 12 months ended in second quarter 2022. Here, we dig deeper to see how outcomes may have differed across groups of workers.
October 18, 2022
More workers find their wages falling even further behind inflation
While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.
October 04, 2022
Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices
Given rising demand for in-person services, the slow pass-through of surging house prices to rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER), and higher health care worker wages, services inflation is likely to increase further.
September 06, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks
Interest rate surprises around FOMC announcements reveal both the surprise in the monetary policy stance (the pure policy shock) and interest rate movements driven by exogenous information about the economy from the central bank (the information shock). In order to disentangle the effects of these two shocks, this paper uses interest rate changes on days of macroeconomic data releases.
August 22, 2022
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.
July 30, 2022
Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?
As the Federal Reserve embarks on a monetary tightening cycle, only a few spots of vulnerability have appeared among emerging markets.
July 12, 2022
Monetary policy at a crossroads: Donald Kohn on controlling inflation, Ukraine effects, Volcker-era lessons
Former Fed Vice Chair Kohn discussed the challenges of reining in inflation and other topics in a policy panel during a recent meeting of the Society for Computational Economics at Southern Methodist University.
July 05, 2022
Fed liquidity facility successfully anchored commercial real estate amid pandemic
The Federal Reserve responded to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic with several liquidity facilities to ensure a continuing flow of credit to households and businesses. The TALF, which financed highly rated asset-backed securities, proved especially important to supporting commercial real estate finance.
May 24, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine will leave scars on U.S., world economies
The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.
May 17, 2022
Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations
Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
April 05, 2022