Economists

Xiaoqing Zhou

Senior Research Economist and Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Xiaoqing Zhou

Xiaoqing Zhou is a Senior Research Economist and Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Her research is in the field of macroeconomics, consumer finance and energy economics. She is interested in the implications of household heterogeneity and regional differences for the transmission of aggregate shocks and policies. She has studied, for example, the interaction between consumer credit markets and the macroeconomy and the link between inflation and energy prices. She holds a PhD in economics from the University of Michigan. She joined the Dallas Fed in July 2019 after working as a senior economist at the Bank of Canada.

Publications

“How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers,” with K. Kartashova, forthcoming: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
“The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23,” with L. Kilian, forthcoming: Energy Economics.
“Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery,” with L. Kilian and N. Nomikos, forthcoming: International Journal of Central Banking.
“A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf,” with L. Kilian and N. Nomikos, Energy Journal, vol. 44, no. 5, 2023, pp. 75-93.
“The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models,” with L. Kilian, Advances in Econometrics, vol. 45B, 2023, pp. 65-95.
“Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment,” Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, 2022, pp. 244-268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2021.03.004.
“The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada,” with L. Kilian, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 54, no. 4, 2022, pp. 953-987. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12847.
“Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations,” with L. Kilian, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 37, no. 5, 2022, pp. 867-881. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2911.
“Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates,” with L. Kilian, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 126, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102679.
“A Quantitative Evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund Program in China,” China Economic Review, vol. 61, June 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101436.
“Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35, no. 1, January 2020, pp. 130-140. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2743.
“Does Drawing Down the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?” with L. Kilian, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 35, 2020, pp. 673-691. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2798.
“Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities,” with L. Kilian, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 88, November 2018, pp. 54-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.07.001.
“Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis,” with C. Baumeister and L. Kilian, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 3, April 2018, pp. 562-580. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000237.
“Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?” with C. Baumeister and L. Kilian, Energy Journal, vol. 39, no. S12, 2018, pp. 117-137. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.39.SI2.cbau.

Working Papers

“Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2203, March 2022, revised February 2023.
“Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,” with Lutz Kilian, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2301, January 2023.
“A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks,” with Lutz Kilian, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2224, December 2022.
“Wealth Inequality and Return Heterogeneity during the COVID-19 Pandemic,” with Katya Kartashova, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2114, November 2021.

Dallas Fed Publications

“Existing Low-Rate Mortgages Blunt Impact of Recent Rate Surge,” Dallas Fed Economics, December 27, 2022.
“Inflation in Services Likely to Rise Further Despite Slowing Goods Prices,” with Tyler Atkinson, Dallas Fed Economics, September 6, 2022.
“Rent Inflation Expected to Accelerate Then Moderate in Mid-2023,” with Jim Dolmas, Dallas Fed Economics, August 16, 2022.
“U.S. Likely Didn’t Slip into Recession in Early 2022 Despite Negative GDP Growth,” with Tyler Atkinson and Victor Wei, Dallas Fed Economics, August 2, 2022.
“Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23,” with Lutz Kilian, Dallas Fed Economics, November 23, 2021.
“Surging House Prices Expected to Propel Rent Increases, Push Up Inflation,” with Jim Dolmas, Dallas Fed Economics, August 24, 2021.
“A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations,” with Lutz Kilian, Dallas Fed Economics, September 22, 2020.
“Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought,” with Lutz Kilian, Dallas Fed Economics, June 16, 2020.
“CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase,” Dallas Fed Economics, May 26, 2020.
“How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy,” with Michael D. Plante and Lutz Kilian, Dallas Fed Economics, May 19, 2020.