Events
Energy and the Economy: Tail Risks, Tailwinds and Resiliency
This conference will investigate contours of tail risks in the energy sector, highlight how such events affect broader economic conditions, and what opportunities may emerge as conditions change.
November 10, 2026
Working Paper
Semiparametric Local Projections
This paper proposes a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables.
June 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Oil and gas expansion gains momentum; outlooks improve but cost pressures grow
Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in second quarter 2026, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
June 24, 2026
Working Paper
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Southwest Economy
Oil prices are up; whither the Texas boom?
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
June 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Hormuz closure offsets tariff reversal; U.S. left with upside inflation risk
A pair of important and opposing trade shocks hit the U.S. economy during the first quarter of 2026. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a portion of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision on Feb. 20 lowered average U.S. import tariffs by roughly 4.8 percentage points.
June 02, 2026
Speeches and essays
Opening remarks for ‘Monetary policy and imbalances’ panel
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan discusses energy markets, financial imbalances and the implications of declining global fertility.
May 27, 2026
Southwest Economy
Texas economy shows resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty
The Texas labor market showed signs of increasing momentum in early 2026, with employment growing 1.7 percent during the first quarter after a sluggish 2025.
May 22, 2026
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Texas Permian Basin grew in the three months ending in March and unemployment rates fell slightly. Both home sales and the median price of homes sold decreased.
May 14, 2026