Dallas Fed Economics
What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy
The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
March 20, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Data center boom expected to raise electricity component of PCE inflation
Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation.
March 05, 2026
Southwest Economy
Texas job growth expected to pick up following flat 2025
Texas economic output grew in 2025 but did so with near-zero job growth. The last time that happened was in 2002–03, when the state emerged from the dot-com bust into an extended jobless recovery.
February 20, 2026
Working Papers
Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks
This paper proposes mean group and pooled estimators of impulse responses based on mixed-frequency auxiliary distributed lag (DL), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) estimating equations.
February 17, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Lessons from the destabilization of inflation in the 1970s
Interest has recently increased in the question of whether the destabilization of inflation during the 1970s might repeat itself in the 2020s.
February 17, 2026
Economic Indicators
Energy Indicators
Global oil inventories are expected to rise over the next year as supply growth continues outpacing consumption. Chinese stockpiling has provided some price support. U.S. crude production is projected to remain stable supported by continued efficiency gains.
February 12, 2026
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Texas Permian Basin grew in the three months ending in December, and the unemployment rates were unchanged. Both home sales and the median price of homes sold increased. Oil production remained flat despite the small decline in the number of new wells drilled and the number of active rigs.
February 11, 2026
Dallas Fed Banking
Shift from utility to corporate financing for renewables presents risk
The increase in corporate power purchase agreements relative to utility PPAs means more opportunities for renewable energy developers, but it also presents higher counterparty and merchant tail risks for lenders involved in renewable energy project financing.
February 10, 2026
At the Heart of Texas
Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands: Texas’ Gulf Coast hub and nation’s energy capital
Houston is Texas’ second-largest metro, accounting for one-quarter of the state’s jobs and 27 percent of its economic output. The metro has diversified as the services, transportation and logistics, and biomedical industries have grown in importance.
February 06, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
Utility-scale solar shines in Texas despite tariffs, federal policy changes
Texas is now the top state for utility-scale solar power generation capacity. However, developers of new solar projects face a changing operating environment, one lacking strong federal policy support but also featuring cost-boosting tariffs on imported solar module components.
February 03, 2026