Research Department Working Papers
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology, Performance and Forecast Accuracy
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
August 13, 2025
Texas economy softens amid uncertain outlook
Texas’ overall pace of economic growth is trending lower, with payroll employment declining in June, a marked turn from robust job gains earlier in 2025.
August 11, 2025
Texas Economy
Growth resumes in Texas service sector activity
Texas service sector activity expanded in July after contracting for two consecutive months, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
July 29, 2025
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity picked up notably in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
July 28, 2025
Texas Economic Indicators
The Texas economy slowed in June. Employment declined, and the unemployment rate ticked down. The June Texas Business Outlook Surveys showed flat manufacturing activity and a mild contraction in the service sector.
July 24, 2025
Texas Employment Forecast
The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.7 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
July 18, 2025
Texas firms open to AI as tariff work-around strategy
Firms are adopting AI and automation to offset rising tariff costs and shrinking margins, aiming to boost productivity and reduce labor needs amid economic challenges.
July 17, 2025
El Paso navigates new complexities in international economy
On President Lorie Logan’s second visit to El Paso as part of her 360 Listening Tour, she heard from business and community leaders about key issues for the Borderplex region, including immigration, trade and water.
July 16, 2025
Energy Indicators
Production from OPEC+ member countries is increasing. That’s keeping downward pressure on oil prices, tempering the impact of recent attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States.
July 09, 2025
Texas Economy
Texas service sector activity continues to decline
Texas service sector activity remained in contractionary territory in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
July 01, 2025