Exploring economic ties with Mexico and the world
The Global Institute advances policy-driven research on global trade, international capital and migration flows, and knowledge and technology transfer with a particular interest in linkages with Mexico. Through this expertise, the Institute delivers insights and analysis to better inform U.S. monetary policy.
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The latest data available indicated a mixed economic outlook as employment and remittances fell, while output primarily driven by agriculture, industrial production, exports and retail sales grew.
In Depth: Unauthorized immigration surged sharply in 2021–24 but has since declined abruptly with negative implications for economic growth.
Understanding Mexico’s evolving economic linkages with East Asia and China is critical to the future of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA trade accord) and the nearshoring and integration of North American manufacturing supply chains.
Special report
Breaking China: Reopening global trade and the evolving U.S.–Mexico relationship
This series examines the evolving trade and investment linkages between China and North America and the broader policy implications. The interaction of trade flows, foreign direct investment and regional production strategies across borders is of special note.
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Working papers and research
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
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Global Macro-Financial Cycles and Spillovers
This paper develops a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them.
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Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.
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Trade Costs and Inflation Dynamics
Using bilateral trade flows from detailed global input-output data and a gravity framework, this paper estimates trade cost shocks and their effects on CPI inflation.
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An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains
Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, this paper develops novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. The paper documents three new GVC patterns.
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Structural Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Open Economy Perspective
This paper studies the evolution of manufacturing value added shares in 11 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries through the lens of an open economy model of structural change.
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Featured event
4th CEMLA/Dallas Fed Financial Stability Workshop
This conference, hosted by the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, will focus on the interplay between financial intermediation, banking and financial stability.
Nov. 24–25, 2025
San Antonio
Event details
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Additional resources
Database of Global Economic Indicators
This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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Index of global real economic activity
This business-cycle index is expressed in percent deviations from trend. It is derived from a panel of dollar-denominated global bulk dry cargo shipping rates and may be viewed as a proxy for the volume of shipping in global industrial commodity markets.
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International House Price Database
The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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Special reports
Breaking China: Reopening global trade and the evolving U.S.–Mexico relationship
This series examines the evolving trade and investment linkages between China and North America and the broader policy implications. The interaction of trade flows, foreign direct investment and regional production strategies across borders is of special note.
Read more
Forging a New Path in North American Trade and Immigration
The proceedings from this 2019 conference explore challenges and opportunities presented by the USMCA.
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NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market
Proceedings of the 2014 conference that brought together leading academic and government researchers who explored the realities of the landmark trade agreement.
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Contact us
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Global Institute, Research Department
2200 N. Pearl St.
Dallas, TX 75201
katie.novy@dal.frb.org
Global Institute