U.S. Economy
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). It is calculated by staff at the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
March 2021
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in March was 1.7 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 2.3 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent on a 12-month basis.
The tables below present data on the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate and, for comparison, overall PCE inflation and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy. The tables give annualized one-month, six-month and 12-month inflation rates.
One-month PCE inflation, annual rate
| Oct-20 | Nov-20 | Dec-20 | Jan-21 | Feb-21 | Mar-21 | |
| PCE | 0.4 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 6.4 |
| PCE ex F&E | 0.0 | -0.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| Trimmed mean | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
Six-month PCE inflation, annual rate
| Oct-20 | Nov-20 | Dec-20 | Jan-21 | Feb-21 | Mar-21 | |
| PCE | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| PCE ex F&E | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Trimmed mean | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
12-month PCE inflation
| Oct-20 | Nov-20 | Dec-20 | Jan-21 | Feb-21 | Mar-21 | |
| PCE | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| PCE ex F&E | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Trimmed mean | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
The following chart plots the evolution of the distribution of price increases in the monthly component data over the past year. The chart shows the percentage of components each month, weighted by their shares in total spending, for which prices grew between 0 and 2 percent (at an annual rate); between 2 and 3 percent; between 3 and 5 percent; between 5 and 10 percent; and more than 10 percent.
Related Publications and Resources
- "Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions," Jim Dolmas, Dallas Fed Economics, August 2019
- "Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack," Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig, Dallas Fed Economics, May 2019
- "Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation," Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig, Dallas Fed Economics, May 2019
- "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison," Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper1903
- "A Fitter, Trimmer Core Inflation Measure" Jim Dolmas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, May/June 2005
- “Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation” Jim Dolmas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper 0506, provides a more detailed look at the methodology behind the trimmed mean inflation rate.
- The Cleveland Fed’s median CPI is a forerunner and close relative of the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate.
- MATLAB code to calculate the trimmed mean inflation rate
2021 Release Dates
- May 28
- June 25
- July 30
- August 27
- October 1
- October 29
- November 24
- December 23
More Information
To request additional data or for technical questions, email Jim Dolmas.
