U.S. Economy
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
NOTICE: Due to the government shutdown, which delayed release of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) Personal Outlays report, we will be releasing Trimmed Mean PCE inflation data one month behind the normal schedule until April 29, 2019.
January 2019
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for January was an annualized 1.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for January was -0.7 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.8 percent.
The tables below present data on the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate and, for comparison, overall PCE inflation and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy. The tables give annualized one-month, six-month and 12-month inflation rates.
One-month PCE inflation, annual rate
| Aug-18 | Sep-18 | Oct-18 | Nov-18 | Dec-18 | Jan-19 | |
| PCE | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| PCE ex F&E | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Trimmed mean | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Six-month PCE inflation, annual rate
| Aug-18 | Sep-18 | Oct-18 | Nov-18 | Dec-18 | Jan-19 | |
| PCE | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| PCE ex F&E | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Trimmed mean | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
12-month PCE inflation
| Aug-18 | Sep-18 | Oct-18 | Nov-18 | Dec-18 | Jan-19 | |
| PCE | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| PCE ex F&E | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Trimmed mean | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
The following chart plots the evolution of the distribution of price increases in the monthly component data over the past year. The chart shows the percentage of components each month, weighted by their shares in total spending, for which prices grew between 0 and 2 percent (at an annual rate); between 2 and 3 percent; between 3 and 5 percent; between 5 and 10 percent; and more than 10 percent.
Related Publications and Resources
- "A Fitter, Trimmer Core Inflation Measure" by Jim Dolmas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, May/June 2005
- “Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation” by Jim Dolmas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Research Department Working Paper 0506, provides a more detailed look at the methodology behind the trimmed mean inflation rate.
- The Cleveland Fed’s median CPI is a forerunner and close relative of the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate.
- MATLAB code to calculate the trimmed mean inflation rate
2019 Release Dates
- April 29
- May 31
- June 28
- August 2
- August 30
- September 27
- October 31
- November 27
- December 20
More Information
To request additional data or for technical questions, email Jim Dolmas.
