Events
Energy and the Economy: Tail Risks, Tailwinds and Resiliency
This conference will investigate contours of tail risks in the energy sector, highlight how such events affect broader economic conditions, and what opportunities may emerge as conditions change.
November 10, 2026
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Texas Permian Basin grew in the three months ending in June, while unemployment rates rose. The number of home sales increased, while the median price of homes sold decreased. Oil production, the number of new wells drilled and the number of active rigs all moved up.
August 07, 2026
Working Paper
What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
This paper draws on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock
This paper measures the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13,200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans
Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. This paper studies how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second-best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions.
August 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Banking
Rig count no longer a reliable bellwether for risk in oil and gas services lending
For decades, commercial lenders relied on a simple rule when evaluating credit risk in oil and gas support services: follow the U.S. rig count. But a portfolio classification of oil and gas support services now encompasses businesses with radically different risk profiles.
July 16, 2026
Working Paper
Semiparametric Local Projections
This paper proposes a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables.
June 30, 2026
Dallas Fed Energy Survey
Oil and gas expansion gains momentum; outlooks improve but cost pressures grow
Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in second quarter 2026, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
June 24, 2026
Working Paper
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026
Dallas Fed Economics
U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
June 23, 2026