Events
Energy and the Economy: Tail Risks, Tailwinds and Resiliency
This conference will investigate contours of tail risks in the energy sector, highlight how such events affect broader economic conditions, and what opportunities may emerge as conditions change.
November 10, 2026
Events
The Future of Electrification in the United States
The conference is scheduled to take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on Saturday, Aug. 29, 2026. Attendance is by invitation only.
August 29, 2026
Economic Indicators
Energy Indicators
Global energy markets are still facing increased volatility and uncertainty in 2026 since the beginning of the conflict with Iran. Crude prices have been pushed up due to supply constraints related to the closure of the strait of Hormuz.
August 20, 2026
Southwest Economy
Momentum builds in the Texas economy; wage pressures broaden
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter, with job growth accelerating and business activity expanding. A pickup in temporary hiring is a positive signal for Texas’ labor market.
August 17, 2026
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators
Employment in the Texas Permian Basin grew in the three months ending in June, while unemployment rates rose. The number of home sales increased, while the median price of homes sold decreased. Oil production, the number of new wells drilled and the number of active rigs all moved up.
August 07, 2026
Working Paper
What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
This paper draws on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock
This paper measures the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13,200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income.
August 06, 2026
Working Paper
Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans
Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. This paper studies how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second-best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions.
August 05, 2026
Dallas Fed Banking
Rig count no longer a reliable bellwether for risk in oil and gas services lending
For decades, commercial lenders relied on a simple rule when evaluating credit risk in oil and gas support services: follow the U.S. rig count. But a portfolio classification of oil and gas support services now encompasses businesses with radically different risk profiles.
July 16, 2026
Working Paper
Semiparametric Local Projections
This paper proposes a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables.
June 30, 2026