Economic Surveys
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity was largely unchanged in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
June 30, 2025
Economic Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume and demand accelerated in June after little to no growth in the prior survey.
June 30, 2025
Economic surveys
Agricultural Survey
Bankers responding to the second-quarter agriculture survey reported mildly improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District.
June 23, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas service sector activity declines modestly
Texas service sector activity contracted in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.
May 28, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity held steady in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
May 27, 2025
Working Paper
Bubbling Up? What Consumer Expectations Reveal About U.S. Housing Market Exuberance
This paper investigates the presence of speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market after the global financial crisis. Unlike standard approaches that rely on observed economic fundamentals, the method used in this paper leverages subjective price expectations from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers to test for exuberance without imposing a specific model of intrinsic housing values.
May 21, 2025
Economic Surveys
Banking Conditions Survey
Loan volume grew slightly while loan demand was unchanged in May. Credit tightening continued, but loan pricing declined.
May 19, 2025
Economic Surveys
Growth resumes in Texas service sector, but company outlooks deteriorated further
Texas service sector activity grew slightly in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose three points to 3.8, indicating a small increase in revenue.
April 29, 2025
Economic Surveys
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas factory activity continued to rise in April. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged. Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however.
April 28, 2025
Working Paper
Tempting FAIT: Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and the Post-COVID U.S. Inflation Surge
In August 2020, the Federal Reserve replaced Flexible Inflation Targeting (FIT) with Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), introducing make-up strategies that allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target. Using a synthetic control approach, this paper estimates that FAIT raised CPI inflation by about 1 percentage point and core CPI inflation by 0.5 percentage points, suggesting a moderate impact net of food and energy and a largely temporary effect. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a steeper-than-expected post-pandemic Phillips curve in the New Keynesian model.
April 09, 2025