A natural approach to estimating the ‘natural rate’ of unemployment
The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”
October 08, 2019
Domestic migration to Texas slows as national labor markets tighten
Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.
September 03, 2019
As wages rise, are black workers seeing the smallest gains?
A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.
July 16, 2019
Labor scarcity, trade woes squeeze Texas business, survey finds
Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.
July 11, 2019
Room to grow? Inflation and labor market slack
Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.
May 30, 2019
Dallas Fed’s Texas jobs estimates provide early, accurate assessment
The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.
May 16, 2019
Online retailing, self-employment disrupt inflation
The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.
April 16, 2019
How much do movers move average wage growth?
Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher.
March 26, 2019
Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think?
There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated.
February 26, 2019
Not everything Is bigger in Texas: The varied fortunes of four smaller metros
While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic.
February 21, 2019