February 21, 2025
R. Jay Kahn and Matthew McCormick
Traders in the repurchase agreement (repo) market protect themselves from the default of their counterparties through margin collected via haircuts on repo transactions. Recent research showing that haircuts on many Treasury repo transactions are low or zero has raised concerns that margining practices in this market are insufficiently strict.
February 18, 2025
Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Alexander W. Richter
Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects.
February 11, 2025
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
January inflation data were stronger in 2023 and 2024 than forecasters expected, even after more encouraging results had been reported for the ends of 2022 and 2023. Rather than reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties, this pattern may be caused by a large share of firms changing prices at the start of a new year.
February 4, 2025
Isabel Brizuela, Emily Kerr and Robert Leigh
Texas companies reported rising service sector revenue and a resumption of production growth in the manufacturing sector after weakness in 2023 and much of 2024, according to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS).
January 14, 2025
Garrett Golding
As ERCOT forecasts accelerated load growth due to anticipated data center construction and electrification trends, the current generation mix and market design should garner increased scrutiny.
January 7, 2025
Lillian Derr and Mark Wynne
Population is a fundamental determinant of a country’s productive capacity. More specifically, labor, along with capital and the efficiency with which the two can be combined (total factor productivity) determine how much a country can produce at any point in time.
December 31, 2024
Anthony Murphy and Isha Parmar
Despite consumer price inflation falling considerably since peaking in 2022, household inflation-related stress and concern remain elevated, having dropped only slightly.
December 24, 2024
Emily Kerr and Ethan Dixon
The Texas economy exhibited recent signs of expansion, though job growth has slowed. A measure of economic activity, The Dallas Fed Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS), shows moderate gains in services revenue, a resumption of retail sales increases and stable manufacturing production.
December 5, 2024
Enrique Martínez García, Manuel Sánchez and Luis B. Torres
The resulting reality surrounding nearshoring’s impact on Mexico’s economy is nuanced. While Mexico has made gains, many of them stem from trade diversion rather than large-scale foreign capital relocation.
December 3, 2024
Tyler Atkinson and Prithvi Kalkunte
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP grew strongly during the second and third quarters of 2024, increasing at an annualized pace of 2.9 percent. Yet, the unemployment rate also rose 0.4 percentage points, an unusually large amount except during recessions.