November 12, 2024
J. Scott Davis
The U.S. net foreign asset position—the value of foreign assets held by U.S. residents minus the value of U.S. assets held by foreign residents—has fallen sharply since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
October 22, 2024
Christopher Otrok and Braden Strackman
The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.
October 8, 2024
Tyler Atkinson
The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?
September 26, 2024
Laila Assanie, Diego Morales-Burnett and Ethan Dixon
The Texas economic expansion continued in August despite some signs of slowing. Employment growth strengthened, rebounding from weakness in the prior two months.
September 24, 2024
Xudong An, Stuart A. Gabriel and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan
Using California's Camp Fire as a natural laboratory, this article examines the effects of both fire and smoke-related air pollution on household credit card spending and repayment.
September 6, 2024
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Observers often assert that stigma—a perception that depositors, investors or others will penalize an institution for borrowing from the discount window—keeps banks from borrowing when they should, making the facilities less effective. Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues that some harms of discount window stigma can be mitigated regardless of whether stigma itself persists.
September 3, 2024
J. Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert
The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.
August 27, 2024
Luis A. Lopez, Nitzan Tzur-Ilan and Jackson Owen
Wildfire smoke pollution may significantly affect housing market activity in locations hundreds or even thousands of miles away from the fires.
August 20, 2024
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina, Ali Ozdagli and Jackson Owen
An evolving change affecting the expanding, highly leveraged corporate loan sector may impact how the economy responds to adverse shocks.
August 13, 2024
Enrique Martínez García and Lauren Spits
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.