August 27, 2024
Luis A. Lopez, Nitzan Tzur-Ilan and Jackson Owen
Wildfire smoke pollution may significantly affect housing market activity in locations hundreds or even thousands of miles away from the fires.
August 20, 2024
Falk Bräuning, Victoria Ivashina, Ali Ozdagli and Jackson Owen
An evolving change affecting the expanding, highly leveraged corporate loan sector may impact how the economy responds to adverse shocks.
August 13, 2024
Enrique Martínez García and Lauren Spits
A review of market-based and private forecasters’ expectations suggests that U.S. housing may be at an inflection point. U.S. income growth and, more broadly, the robust U.S. labor market will likely help wring out pandemic-era excesses that led to rapidly deteriorating affordability.
August 8, 2024
Laila Assanie and Robert Leigh
The housing market slowed, with sales down and inventories rising. Data reflecting strain among small businesses and low- and moderate-income households appeared mixed. Some data point to rising stress, while others suggest resilience.
August 6, 2024
Ali Ozdagli and Maddie Shaheen
Our research suggests that if the world becomes increasingly interconnected through international trade, entrepreneurship rates will decrease over time.
July 16, 2024
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
In the short run, running the economy hot—with output growth above potential—comes with the cost of additional inflation. But policymakers cannot exploit this relationship forever because inflation expectations won’t remain anchored, as the public comes to expect a higher level of inflation for any given level of output.
July 9, 2024
Anton Cheremukhin, Sewon Hur, Ron Mau and Alexander W. Richter
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
July 2, 2024
Pia Orrenius, Ana Pranger, Madeline Zavodny and Isabel Dhillon
U.S. labor market conditions are among the main drivers of an unprecedented surge of immigration, the exact size and consequences of which are still being assessed.
June 25, 2024
Jesus Cañas and Emily Kerr
Learning how businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) helps policymakers understand changing economic conditions, particularly involving employment and productivity.
June 20, 2024
Mariam Yousuf, Isabel Dhillon and Diego Morales-Burnett
Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in May, driven by the service sector. Texas employment growth picked up, and the unemployment rate nudged up to 4.0 percent in April from 3.9 percent in March.