Economists

J. Scott Davis

Assistant Vice President
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Scott Davis

Scott Davis is an assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. He joined the Dallas Fed as a research economist in 2010.

His research is in the field of open economy macroeconomics, particularly the effect of trade and financial integration on the international transmission of business-cycle fluctuations.

Prior to joining the Dallas Fed, Davis was a senior lecturer at Vanderbilt University. He has also held visiting positions at the Bank of England, Bank of Estonia, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.

He holds a PhD in economics from Vanderbilt University.

Publications

“A Theory of Capital Flow Retrenchment,” with Eric van Wincoop, Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103952.
“The Global Financial Cycle and Capital Flows during the COVID-19 Pandemic,” with Andrei Zlate, European Economic Review, vol. 156, 2023, 104477. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104477.
“Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention,” with Michael B. Devereux and Changhua Yu, Journal of International Economics, vol. 141, 2023, 103728. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103728.
“Land Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations with Imperfect Substitution in Real Estate Markets,” with Kevin X.D. Huang and Ayse Sapci, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 134, January 2022, 104274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104274.
“Capital Controls for Crisis Management Policy in a Global Economy,” with Michael B. Devereux, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 14, no. 1, January 2022, pp. 60-82. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200073.
“Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows,” with Giorgio Valente and Eric Van Wincoop, Journal of International Economics, vol. 128, January 2021, 103397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103397.
“Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Tool for Capital Account Management,” with Ippei Fujiwara, Kevin X.D. Huang and Jiao Wang, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 117, January 2021, pp. 473-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.02.006.
“Monetary Policy Divergence and Net Capital Flows: Accounting for Endogenous Policy Responses,” with A. Zlate, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 94, June 2019, pp. 15-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.01.016.
“Central Bank Communications: A Case Study,” with M. A. Wynne, The Oxford Handbook of Economics of Central Banking, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190626198.013.9.
“Globalization and the Increasing Correlation Between Capital Inflows and Outflows,” with E. Van Wincoop, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 100, December 2018, pp. 83-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.07.009.
“Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting,” with I. Fujiwara and J. Wang, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 50, no. 7, October 2018, pp. 1369-1399. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12551.
“External Debt and Monetary Policy Autonomy,” Ensayos sobre Política Económica, vol. 35, no. 82, 2017, pp. 53-63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2016.11.004.
“Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in a Small Open Economy,” with I. Presno, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 85, January 2017, pp. 114-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.11.008.
“Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity,” with M. J. Crucini, Journal of International Economics, vol. 100, May 2016, pp. 203-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.03.010.
“Credit Booms, Banking Crises, and the Current Account,” with A. Mack, W. Phoa and A. Vandenabeele, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 60, February 2016, pp. 360-377. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.09.008.
“The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt- and Equity-Based Capital Inflows,” Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 46, December 2015, pp. 81-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.07.006.
“The Asymmetric Effects of Deflation on Consumption Spending: Evidence from the Great Depression,” Economics Letters, vol. 130, May 2015, pp. 105-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.03.016.
“Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-movement,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 64, May 2014, pp. 99-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.01.007.
“International Real Business Cycles with Endogenous Markup Variability,” with K. X. D. Huang, Journal of International Economics, vol. 85, no. 2, November 2011, pp. 302-316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.06.004.
“Fiscal Federalism, Risk Sharing and the Persistence of Shocks,” Advances in Computational Economics, vol. 20, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-74684-3_6.

Working Papers

Real Exchange Rates and the Global Financial Cycle J. Scott Davis and Andrei ZlateFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working PaperNo. 2416 (Revised May 2025)November 2024.

“Dollar Shortages, CIP Deviations and the Safe Haven Role of the Dollar,” with Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop, Globalization Institute Working Paper No. 425, December 2023. See also NBER Working Paper No. 31937.
“A Theory of Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle,” with Eric van Wincoop, Globalization Institute Working Paper No. 420, May 2023.
“Financial Performance and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Emerging Market Economies over the Global Financial Cycle,” with Andrei Zlate, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 288, September 2016.
“The Cyclicality of Bilateral Capital Inflows and Outflows,” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 247, August 2015.

Dallas Fed Publications

Evidence suggests U.S. house price/rent ratio, real home prices to decline J. Scott DavisDallas Fed EconomicsFebruary 25, 2025.

“Swap lines curbed global dollar shortages, appreciation during COVID-19 crisis,” with Pon Sagnanert, Dallas Fed Economics, May 21, 2024.
“Arbitrage limits heighten dollar shortages abroad during volatile times,” with Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop, Dallas Fed Economics, January 9, 2024.
“Russian ruble buckles under trade sanctions, declining export earnings,” with Kunal Patel, Dallas Fed Economics, October 10, 2023.
“Emerging-market countries insulate themselves from Fed rate hikes,” with Pon Sagnanert, Dallas Fed Economics, August 8, 2023.
“Treasuries’ allure as safe haven noted in short maturities, not in long bonds,” Dallas Fed Economics, June 27, 2023.
“Capital flowed from emerging markets as pandemic, economic cycle took hold,” with Andrei Zlate, Dallas Fed Economics, March 7, 2023.
“Fed’s 1994 rate aggressiveness led to emerging-market turmoil; is this time different?” with Michael B. Devereux and Changhua Yu, Dallas Fed Economics, July 12, 2022.
“Russia counters sanctions’ impact with currency controls, averts crisis (for now),” with Ippei Fujiwara, Kevin X.D. Huang and Jiao Wang, Dallas Fed Economics, May 31, 2022.
“Recent inflation surges have modestly affected long-term expectations,” Dallas Fed Economics, April 5, 2022.
“Asset Prices, Leverage and Portfolio Rebalancing Drive Global Capital Flows Cycle,” with Eric van Wincoop, Dallas Fed Economics, November 30, 2021.
“Don’t Look to 2013 Tantrum for the Effect of Tapering on Emerging Markets,” Dallas Fed Economics, August 10, 2021.
“Emerging-Market Economies Face COVID-19 and a 'Sudden Stop' in Capital Flows,” Dallas Fed Economics, April 4, 2020.
“Risks Abound if China Uses Debt to Stimulate the Economy from Current Downturn,” Dallas Fed Economics, April 2019.
“Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy,” with Daniel Crowley and Michael Morris, Economic Letter, 13(9), December 2018.
“China's Capital Controls Appear to Arrest Flight, Stabilize Currency,” Economic Letter, 12(12), November 2017.
“Emerging-market Debtor Nations Likely to Follow Fed Rate Boost,” Economic Letter, 11(1), March 2016.
“Diverging Monetary Policies, Global Capital Flows and Financial Stability,” with Mark A. Wynne, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report, 2015.
“The Trilemma in Practice: Monetary Policy Autonomy in an Economy with a Floating Exchange Rate,” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report, 2015.
“External Debt Sheds Light on Drivers of Exchange Rate Fluctuations,” Economic Letter, 10(4), April 2015.
“Current Account Surplus May Damp the Effects of China's Credit Boom,” with Adrienne Mack, Wesley Phoa and Anne Vandenabeele, Economic Letter, 10(1), January 2015.
“The Political Economy of International Money: Common Currencies, Currency Wars and Exorbitant Privilege,” with Mark A. Wynne, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report, 2014.
“Central Bank Transparency Anchors Inflation Expectations,” with Adrienne Mack and Mark Wynne, Economic Letter, 9(4), April 2014.
“Cross-country Variation in the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations,” with Adrienne Mack, Staff Papers no. 21, 2013.
“Financial Frictions Conference: Reviews Paths to Monetary Policy Objectives,” with Mark A. Wynne, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report, 2012.
“Inflation Expectations Have Become More Anchored Over Time,” Economic Letter, 7(13), December 2012.
“Relating Commodity Prices to Underlying Inflation: The Role of Expectations,” Economic Letter, 6(14), December 2011.