Texas economy

The Texas economy decelerated at the end of 2025. Overall, employment growth slowed notably in Texas and major metro areas in 2025 relative to 2024, though payrolls expanded in December.

Global oil inventories are expected to rise over the next year as supply growth continues outpacing consumption. Chinese stockpiling has provided some price support. U.S. crude production is projected to remain stable supported by continued efficiency gains.

This paper uses Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates.

Financing needs related to AI data center investments are likely to be large and persistent. While the overall economics of such investments remains a topic of much debate, the duration supply implications for U.S. interest rate markets have received less attention.

The third edition of this special report is a comprehensive look at the historical, economic and demographic profiles of 12 of Texas' key metropolitan areas.

Pia Orrenius, vice president and senior economist, released the Dallas Fed's forecast for Texas employment growth for the year and shared details on factors likely to influence the Texas economy in 2026.

The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.1 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of -0.5 to 2.7 percent.

Texas is now the top state for utility-scale solar power generation capacity. However, developers of new solar projects face a changing operating environment, one lacking strong federal policy support but also featuring cost-boosting tariffs on imported solar module components.