Texas economy

Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported stable but depressed conditions across most of the Eleventh District.

The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.

Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Texas economy expanded in April. Overall, employment grew and the unemployment rate held steady.

Texas service sector activity expanded at about the same pace in May as the prior month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

Texas manufacturing output growth decelerated in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

The Texas Employment Forecast indicates jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 2.4 percent.

The Texas labor market showed signs of increasing momentum in early 2026, with employment growing 1.7 percent during the first quarter after a sluggish 2025.