Economists
Tyler Atkinson
Senior Business Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Tyler Atkinson is a senior business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Atkinson, who joined the Bank in 2010, analyzes U.S. economic growth, inflation, labor market trends and the role of monetary policy. His research interests include economic forecasting and the macroeconomic effects of the zero lower bound on interest rates.
He earned an MS in economics from Boston College and a BS in economics from Texas A&M University.
Publications
- “Venture Capital Restrained After Sarbanes–Oxley,” with John V. Duca, Economics Letters, vol. 175, February 2019, pp. 84–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.018.
See also: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 1707, August 2017.
Working Papers
- Mobility and Engagement Following the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak Working PaperNo. 2014 (Revised June 2020, new title)May 2020.
- The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy No. 1804 (Revised February 2019)February 2019.
Dallas Fed Publications
- Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases Dallas Fed EconomicsApril 16, 2026.
- Young workers’ employment drops in occupations with high AI exposure Dallas Fed EconomicsJanuary 6, 2026.
- What is keeping core inflation above 2 percent? Dallas Fed EconomicsSeptember 23, 2025.
- Is inflation still slowing? Early 2025 data pivotal to outlook Dallas Fed EconomicsFebruary 11, 2025.
- Rising unemployment doesn’t counter signs of strong GDP growth Dallas Fed EconomicsDecember 3, 2024.
- Rising unemployment does not mean recession is inevitable Dallas Fed EconomicsOctober 8, 2024.
- Running the economy hotter for longer could steepen Phillips curve Dallas Fed EconomicsJuly 16, 2024.
- Inflation forecasts based on money growth proved accurate in 2021, though generally unreliable Dallas Fed EconomicsFebruary 20, 2024.
- How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market? Dallas Fed EconomicsOctober 19, 2023.
- Wage growth still exceeds 3 percent despite slowing in business survey measures Dallas Fed EconomicsAugust 1, 2023.
- Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year Dallas Fed EconomicsJune 20, 2023.
- Inflation in services likely to rise further despite slowing goods prices Dallas Fed EconomicsSeptember 6, 2022.
- U.S. likely didn’t slip into recession in early 2022 despite negative GDP growth Dallas Fed EconomicsAugust 2, 2022.
- Initial unemployment claims appear stable over past several months Dallas Fed EconomicsJune 28, 2022.
- Nominal GDP outlook suggests it’s time to end monetary accommodation Dallas Fed EconomicsJanuary 13, 2022.
- What might inflation look like next year? Dallas Fed EconomicsOctober 14, 2021.
- What the trimmed mean says about future inflation: broadening price pressures ahead Dallas Fed EconomicsJuly 1, 2021.
- The labor market may be tighter than the level of employment suggests Dallas Fed EconomicsMay 27, 2021.
- Average inflation over the pandemic avoids 'base-effect' distortions Dallas Fed EconomicsMay 13, 2021.
- Pandemic disproportionately affects women, minority labor force participation Dallas Fed EconomicsNovember 10, 2020.
- U.S. economic rebound uneven amid resurgent local COVID-19 outbreaks Dallas Fed EconomicsAugust 4, 2020.
- The production process drives fluctuations in output and uncertainty Dallas Fed EconomicsJune 30, 2020.
- Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index gives insight into COVID-19’s economic impact Dallas Fed EconomicsMay 21, 2020.
- Consumer surveys suggest economic conditions remain healthy but growth is slowing Dallas Fed EconomicsNovember 5, 2019.
- Consumers’ and economists’ differing inflation views can complicate policymaking Dallas Fed EconomicsJune 25, 2019.
- Changes in labor force participation help explain recent job gains Dallas Fed EconomicsFebruary 19, 2019.
- "America’s Missing Workers Are Primarily Middle Educated," with Alan Armen, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 12, no. 4, March 2017.
- "Is Rising Unemployment an Early Warning of State-Level Recession?" with Alan Armen, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 11, no. 8, July 2016.
- "Assessing the Costs and Consequences of the 2007–09 Financial Crisis and Its Aftermath," with David Luttrell and Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 8, no. 7, September 2013.
- "How Bad Was It? The Costs and Consequences of the 2007–09 Financial Crisis," with David Luttrell and Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, no. 20, July 2013.
- "High Unemployment Points to Below-Target (But Still Stable) Inflation," with Evan F. Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 7, no. 12, October 2012.
- "Inflation, Slack, and Fed Credibility," with Evan F. Koenig, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, no. 16, January 2012.
- "Gauging the Odds of a Double-Dip Recession Amid Signals and Slowdowns," with Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, vol. 5, no. 12, December 2010.